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Arkansas State

Arkansas State Red Wolves

Sun Belt·1-1·
Compare
Elo
1353#104
SP+
-15.1#120
FPI
-10.7
AP
NR
Next@ TCU · Wk 3Win prob 12%Model +17.7
Talent #91 (606.2)Recruiting class #8530% production returning

Team Leaders

Latest on Arkansas State

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Marcus Stokes produced seven of Memphis's twelve explosive plays

Matchup · 6d ago

Thirty-seven out: Arkansas State enters 2026 unrecognizable

Matchup · Sep 2

Roster · 116 players

FR 22SO 21JR 28SR 45
#PlayerPosClHtWt
6Ethan CrawfordQBSR6'0"201
7Drew DickeyQBSR6'1"211
9Trey OwensQBJR6'5"220
12Jeremy St-HilaireQBJR6'4"220
20Mason SchubertQBSO6'3"188
4Devin SpencerRBJR5'10"183
5Kenyon ClayRBSR6'1"223
8Corey ReddickRBSR5'10"175
20Timothy CarterRBJR6'0"215
22Ezell JollyRBSR6'0"194
23Solomon BaggettRBFR5'10"196
24Nasir AllenRBSO5'11"174
27James LeeRBSR5'10"190
28Chavel WilliamsRBFR5'9"180
30Damon SisaRBJR5'8"160
0Nana BurrisWRSR5'11"195
2Chauncy CobbWRSR5'6"161
3Hunter SummersWRSR6'3"165
10Jaylen BonelliWRSR5'11"175
13Boski BarrettWRJR5'11"178
14Andre FeastWRSO5'10"186
15Andrew JonesWRSO6'1"160
18Romel StevensWRSO6'4"210
21Deshaun FeddWRFR6'1"175
80Kena RegoWRFR6'0"171
81Dallas BoozerWRFR6'2"175
84Reed LinderWRSR5'10"177
85Brandon GolidayWRFR6'0"183
11Tyler LittleTESR6'4"245
16Joshua BurrellTESR6'2"233
17Jabari BushTEJR6'4"230
19Jaden HammTESR6'6"252
41Coleman ParmerTESO6'3"209
82Ezra BurgessTEJR6'4"243
88Dawson McfadinTEFR6'4"227
89Andrew StatenTESO6'4"230
50Wil SaxtonOLSR6'3"314
51Cade ChannellOLSO6'5"294
52Mason MyersOLSR6'4"289
53Talan ChandlerOLJR6'2"299
55Aleric WatsonOLSR6'4"333
57Dan'tay Ward Jr.OLSO6'6"309
58Cameron AmbroseOLSR6'4"275
63Aiden KehmOLJR6'5"324
64Noah HackerOLSO6'7"294
65Cape JohnsonOLJR6'4"303
68Tristian SmithOLSR6'3"319
69Cooper SherrodOLFR6'3"305
70Manasse IteteOLJR6'5"308
71Tanner WelchOLSR6'8"326
72Sterling WigginsOLSR6'6"317
74Landry CannonOLSR6'4"310
75JB HoehnOLFR6'5"317
76Trason HuntOLJR6'5"309
77Gabe FortsonOLSR6'3"317
78Josh AustinOLFR6'4"336
79Baker NorthOLJR6'3"329
10Tony CarterDESO6'2"259
11Sultan BadmusDEJR6'1"275
14Donquarius ParkerDESR6'1"244
20TJ GrantDEJR6'3"238
27AJ ThomasDESR6'2"242
30Gavin TaylorDESR6'2"247
34Mckinley McshanDEFR6'3"241
42Shaun WilliamsDESO6'3"266
45Nicolas KalumeDESR6'3"244
90Lincoln StueveDESO6'3"243
96Ronnie BlossomDESO6'3"225
44Sam HultzDTSR6'3"281
47Trey BridgesDTFR6'2"263
54Ryan ReeseDTSO6'2"272
91Tyeland ColemanDTSR6'4"319
92Elias ShermanDTSR6'1"291
93Trent MappDTJR6'2"284
94Jakohri JohnsonDTFR6'2"294
97Tavon BellDTFR6'3"275
98Shakai WoodsDTSR6'0"305
99TJ SpannDTJR6'3"307
9Kam MooreLBSR6'1"223
22Nigel NelsonLBSO5'11"216
23Robert StevensLBSR6'1"216
24Joshua OforLBJR6'1"224
25Keoni DennyLBSR6'0"230
28Daniel DemeryLBSR5'11"225
35Rasheem TurnerLBFR5'10"219
37Ashton MooreLBFR6'0"193
38Noah HamlinLBFR6'1"201
0Dontrae HendersonCBJR5'11"184
1Braden JacksonCBJR6'0"177
2Jaylen HeywardCBJR6'0"189
3Noah FloresCBSR5'9"181
7Courtney PattersonCBSO5'11"183
13Kyle WilliamsCBJR6'0"189
17Marquis WilliamsCBSO6'0"188
29Luke WishamCBJR6'2"184
33KeAndre FordCBFR5'9"187
36Rayquan WilliamsCBSR6'2"165
4Makai ShahidSSR6'0"197
5Five HamiltonSSR5'10"178
6AG McGheeSSR5'10"187
8Brandon BarnesSJR6'1"189
12Bryson RossSJR6'3"190
15Brandon GreilSSR5'11"182
16Joe DrewSSO6'3"215
18Malekhi WeedonSSO6'1"201
19James Reed IIISSR5'10"187
21Malik McConicoSSR6'2"187
26Rukevwe EruwetaghwareSFR6'0"192
32Paul RisperSFR6'1"173
25Clayton AmayaPKJR5'10"199
34Clune Van AndelPKSR6'0"210
40Wells StanleyPFR6'0"205
90Daniel VuckovicPSR6'1"214
42Kyle NillLSSO6'1"205
87Sam BoozerLSFR6'3"215
88Riley SmithLSJR6'1"205

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
38.0
scoring offense
Points allowed
24.5
scoring defense
Differential
+13.5
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
412.5#70
Yards / play
7.1#31
Passing yards / game
230.0#66
Rushing yards / game
182.5#56
First downs / game
21.5#59
3rd down %
55.6%#16
4th down %
100.0%#1
Time of possession
31:18#53
Defense
Yards allowed / game
384.5#106
Yards / play allowed
6.4#119
Pass yards allowed / game
181.0#53
Rush yards allowed / game
203.5#124
3rd down % allowed
50.0%#125
Sacks
2#105
Tackles for loss
7#108
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
+1#42
Takeaways
6#5
Giveaways
5#124
Penalties / game
5.5#38
Penalty yards / game
48.5#51

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

balanced

Arkansas State is in year 6 under Butch Jones, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 129th at running it, and they are 125th in the push up front.

On fourth down he goes for it less often than his peers do from the same spots (−3.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −32.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.

Arkansas State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Projected soft spots

  • Offenserunning it
    #129
    projected
  • Offensethe push the line gets
    #125
    projected
  • Offensesacks and tackles for loss
    #120
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 10 to play
5.1 – 6.9
projected final record (now 1–1)
Exp. wins left
4.1
of 10 games
Bowl odds
40%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
68%
vs UL Monroe
Toughest
12%
vs TCU

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

1234567891011
final winstallest bar = 27% chance
Likeliest finish 5-7 (27%)Bowl eligible 40% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
WRJaylen Bonelli, Nazeviah Burris +4
+23.7 EPA
RBKenyon Clay, Ezell Jolly +2
+11.8 EPA
QBTrey Owens
+7.4 EPA
TEJoshua Burrell, Tyler Little +1
+0.5 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBTrey Owens
~$524K
EPA +7.40.133/play56 snaps
RBKenyon Clay
~$260K
EPA +13.10.450/play29 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.1942nd#80
Def0.355th#131
Explosiveness
Off1.1526th#102
Def1.3924th#105
Field position
Off68.029th#98
Def72.452nd#67
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off4.2354th#64
Def3.1158th#59
Turnovers
Won 6Lost 5
Margin +1

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.2842nd#81
Off · rush
0.2470th#42

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.2467th#46
Def0.259th#126
Passing
Off0.2842nd#81
Def0.587th#129

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
3.18#54
2nd-level / open-field
1.04 / 0.65
Power / stuff (off)
75.0% / 15.7%
Havoc — total (def)
13.9%#107
Havoc — front 7 / DB
7.4% / 6.6%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off0.24
Def0.26
Pass downs
Off0.07
Def0.55

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense0.18#430.03#1040.49#77
Defense0.28#1330.05#520.97#133

Elo Trajectory

@MemphisFinal
Elo rating 1378 → 1349-29 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.1331st
  • Defense EPA/play allowed0.496th
  • Offense success rate50%66th
  • Defense success rate allowed49%15th

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs59%78th
  • Offense success — passing downs25%26th
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs50%24th
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs46%11th

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.360th
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.516th
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.285th
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.519th

Trenches

  • Offense line yards3.253rd
  • Defense line yards allowed3.56th
  • Offense highlight yards0.9651st
  • Defense highlight yards allowed2.85th
  • Offense power success0.8369th
  • Defense power success allowed0.6067th
  • Offense stuff rate0.1274th
  • Defense stuff rate0.1317th

Third down

  • Third down conversion50%66th
  • Third down distance faced8.115th
  • Third down conversion allowed56%9th
  • Third down distance forced4.44th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half-0.1516th
  • Net success rate — second half0.2177th

Drives

  • Points per drive2.258th
  • Points per drive allowed3.818th
  • Average starting field position3276th
  • Opponent starting field position2196th
  • Available yards gained55%65th
  • Available yards allowed59%29th
  • Scoring opportunities per drive100%99th
  • Scoring opportunities allowed82%48th
  • Points per scoring opportunity2.237th
  • Points allowed per opportunity4.711th
  • Three-and-out rate0%99th
  • Three-and-outs forced36%76th

Roster

  • Returning usage39%44th
  • Returning EPA73.937th
  • Team talent composite60634th
  • Recruiting class rank85.039th
  • Recruiting class points18439th

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

EPA/play
+0.192#80 · average
Pass EPA/play
+0.282#81
Rush EPA/play
+0.238#46
Explosiveness
1.150#102
Pts/opportunity
4.23#64
Success rate
51.5%

Pass efficiency edge: 0.043 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

Disciplined defense — allowing above-average EPA/play
EPA/play allowed
+0.347#131 · bottom 20%
Havoc rate (total)
13.9%#107
Front-7 havoc
7.4%
DB havoc
6.6%
Big play rate allowed
1.387#105
Success rate allowed
43.9%

Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.

📊

Season Signature

38.0 PPG offense, 24.5 allowed — +13.5 margin/game
Points per game
38.0
Points allowed/game
24.5
Scoring margin/game
+13.5
Turnover margin
+1won 6 · lost 5
Production returning
30%
Talent rank (247)
#91

1-1 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE42thEXPLOSIVENESS26thFINISHING54thFIELD POS29thDEFENSE5thHAVOC23th50th100th
Offense
42th
Explosiveness
26th
Finishing
54th
Field Pos
29th
Defense
5th
Havoc
23th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
-13.2
#124
Offense
-3.4
#98
Defense
+9.8
#132
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 11 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive2.183.82
Starting field positionown 31.7own 20.5
Available yards54.8%58.6%
Scoring opportunities100.0%81.8%
Points per opportunity2.184.67
Three-and-out rate0.0%36.4%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
55.9%
Expected, given the spots
52.8%
Over expected
+3.2
Fourth down vs peers
-4
Fourth down vs the model
-100
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Arkansas State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Arkansas State in 2026

by EPA/play distance
Texas StateSP+ -7.8
Off EPA/play +0.185Def EPA/play +0.326Elo 1441
Match
99%
CharlotteSP+ -26.0
Off EPA/play +0.209Def EPA/play +0.375Elo 1182
Match
98%
South AlabamaSP+ -11.4
Off EPA/play +0.236Def EPA/play +0.312Elo 1390
Match
97%
Ball StateSP+ -25.0
Off EPA/play +0.119Def EPA/play +0.321Elo 1112
Match
95%
East CarolinaSP+ -8.1
Off EPA/play +0.174Def EPA/play +0.257Elo 1477
Match
95%
Florida StateSP+ +6.9
Off EPA/play +0.242Def EPA/play +0.268Elo 1557
Match
95%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: -2.6, #75 of 1282016: -1.4, #70 of 1282017: +3.2, #57 of 1302018: +4.6, #46 of 1302019: -3.9, #75 of 1302020: -5.6, #85 of 1242021: -27.0, #123 of 1302022: -18.5, #121 of 1312023: -10.4, #100 of 1332024: -14.0, #113 of 1342025: -16.8, #118 of 1362026: -13.2, #124 of 138
20152026
Now -13.2 · #124 of 138Best +4.6 in 2018Worst -27.0 in 2021

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20261-10-0
50%
1.0+0.0
20257-65-3
54%
5.2+1.8
20248-55-3
62%
4.6+3.4
20236-74-4
46%
5.6+0.4
20223-91-7
25%
4.0-1.0
20212-101-7
17%
2.9-0.9
20204-72-6
36%
4.7-0.7
20198-55-3
62%
6.7+1.3
20188-55-3
62%
8.7-0.7
20177-56-2
58%
9.4-2.4

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

0.1%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

0-1 so far, projected to finish 6.6-5.6. Wins the Sun Belt in 6.6%.

If they finish with…

16%
1 loss
0.1%
2 losses
0%
3 losses
0%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count.

Win out and it is 16%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.

down 0.3 points since preseason — lost 24-42 to Memphis against an expected margin of −14, so −3.7 against the number.

  • At 1 loss they are 16% where the average Sun Belt team is 20%.
  • The Sun Belt takes 0.14 bids in an average season.
  • One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.1% of seasons, having won their league in 100% of those.

Arkansas State’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk3at TCU0.7
  • wk12at Louisiana Tech0.2
  • wk5at Louisiana0.2
  • wk11at Coastal Carolina0.2
  • wk13vs Troy0.2
  • wk4vs Kennesaw State0.1

Who to root for

Games Arkansas State is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk2Utah State over Washington0.1
  • wk13Missouri State over Liberty0.1
  • wk2Colgate over Central Michigan0.1
  • wk11Wake Forest over SMU0.1
  • wk10Northern Illinois over San José State0.1
  • wk5Memphis over Charlotte0.1
The full playoff picture →

Sun Belt

West division · 0-0 in league play, projected 4.8-3.25 of 14 by title odds
6.6%
Wins the Sun Belt
19%
Reaches the title game

The Sun Belt keeps divisions (East and West) and sends the winner of each — so Arkansas State can finish with the league’s second-best record and still stay home. The last berth is level on percentage in 47% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk12Arkansas State at Louisiana Tech11.7
  • wk5Arkansas State at Louisiana11.6
  • wk13Troy at Arkansas State9.4
  • wk6South Alabama at Arkansas State8.3

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Sun Belt race →

If not the playoff, then

70%
Bowl eligible
68%
Placed in a bowl
0.1%
In the playoff
32%
Season over in November

Arkansas State is 0-1 and needs 6 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 1.7% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.

  • New Orleans Bowl10%
  • Salute to Veterans Bowl9.9%
  • Myrtle Beach Bowl9.0%
  • 68 Ventures Bowl8.7%
  • Boca Raton Bowl7.8%
  • Cure Bowl6.6%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 9 have sent Arkansas State a player since 2010 — 16 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Arkansas State's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
ConwayAR30
OxfordAL30
AuburnAL20
Fort Bend MarshallTX20
LakelandFL20
Blue SpringsMO10
ManorTX10
RockwallTX10
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.