Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Arkansas State gets at Coastal Carolina: 89th at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 124th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. Where Coastal Carolina gets at Arkansas State: 36th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 73rd at keeping everything in front of them.
How
ARSTattacks
CCU
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
ARST#89 of 138CCU#124 of 138
HowCCUattacksARST
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
CCU#36 of 138ARST#73 of 138
The two teams
Arkansas State
Arkansas State is in year 6 under Butch Jones, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 129th at running it, and they are 121st at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it less often than his peers do from the same spots (−3.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −32.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Arkansas State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offenserunning it#129projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#121projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#120projected
Coastal Carolina
Coastal Carolina is in year 1 under Ryan Beard. The way in is 134th at staying on schedule through the air, and they are 131st on first and second down.
Coastal Carolina has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#134projected
- Offensefirst and second down#131projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#129projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CCU Elo 1270, ARST Elo 1353 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CCU -0.5 (51% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
ARST31st58thCCUCCU44th120thARSTThrough the air
ARST67th10thCCUCCU30th53rdARSTOn the ground
ARST56th122ndCCUCCU81st125thARSTStaying on the field
ARST15th81stCCUCCU96th125thARSTTaking care of it
ARST124th9thCCUCCU48th5thARST
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ARST | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.7 (#119) | CORE overall | -5.7 (#96) |
| -5 / +10 | offense / defense | -1 / +5 |
| 2.18 | points / drive | 1.85 |
| 3.82 | allowed / drive | 2.58 |
| 0% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina?
Gridpex's model favors Coastal Carolina with a 51% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina?
The model projects Coastal Carolina by 0.5.
What time is Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Brooks Stadium (SC).
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →