Cajun FieldConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UL 1334
ARST 1317
Projected spread
UL -2
incl. home edge
Model pick
UL
56% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
56%
UL (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (UL Elo 1334, ARST Elo 1317) plus home-field advantage. That projects UL -2 (56% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelARST 44% · UL 56%
Pick: UL
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
ARST2025 season · national rank shownUL
383.374th
Total yards / game
344.1101st5.2108th
Yards / play
5.2Key matchups · Pro
- ARST rush offense (-0.01 PPA) vs. UL rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge UL.
- UL pass offense (0.15 PPA) vs. ARST pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge ARST.
- ARST pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. UL pass defense (0.27 allowed) — edge UL.
FAQ
Who will win Arkansas State vs. Louisiana?
Gridpex's model favors Louisiana with a 56% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Arkansas State vs. Louisiana?
The model projects Louisiana by 2.0.
What time is Arkansas State vs. Louisiana and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Cajun Field.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Louisiana at 56% to win, projecting Louisiana by 2.0.