Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Southern Miss gets at Arkansas State: 9th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 73rd at keeping everything in front of them. Arkansas State projects no clear way in against Southern Miss. Southern Miss is also 43rd at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 104th.
How
USMattacks
ARST
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
USM#9 of 138ARST#73 of 138 - 2
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
USM#43 of 138ARST#104 of 138 - 3
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
USM#56 of 138ARST#99 of 138
The two teams
Arkansas State
Arkansas State is in year 6 under Butch Jones, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 129th at running it, and they are 121st at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it less often than his peers do from the same spots (−3.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −32.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Arkansas State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offenserunning it#129projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#121projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#120projected
Southern Miss
Southern Miss is in year 1 under Blake Anderson, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 9th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −25.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Southern Miss has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#9projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USM Elo 1285, ARST Elo 1353 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USM -14.6 (83% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
ARST31st109thUSMUSM106th120thARSTThrough the air
ARST67th62ndUSMUSM96th53rdARSTOn the ground
ARST56th133rdUSMUSM55th125thARSTStaying on the field
ARST15th100thUSMUSM73rd125thARSTTaking care of it
ARST124th5thUSMUSM75th5thARST
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSouthern Miss leads 9–3 · 58% have been one-possession games
| ARST | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.18 | points / drive | -0.18 |
| 3.82 | allowed / drive | 3.44 |
| 0% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss?
Gridpex's model favors Southern Miss with a 83% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss?
The model projects Southern Miss by 14.6.
What time is Arkansas State vs. Southern Miss and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at M. M. Roberts Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →