Florida International
2-3·Conference USA· Elo 1216
25–6
Final
Western Kentucky
5-1·Conference USA· Elo 1424
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith StadiumConference gameClosing line: WKU -10 · FIU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIU | 6 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 25 |
| WKU | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Team stats
FIUthis game · better side highlightedWKU
453
Total yards
341204
Passing yards
225249
Rushing yards
11621
First downs
18Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WKU 1424
FIU 1216
Projected spread
WKU -10.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
WKU
79% to win
Market spread
WKU -10
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
79%
WKU · market 75%
Our model blends Elo ratings (WKU Elo 1424, FIU Elo 1216) plus home-field advantage. That projects WKU -10.7 (79% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
WKU (top)FIU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WKU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- FIU rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. WKU rush defense (0.09 allowed) — edge FIU.
- FIU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. WKU pass defense (0.16 allowed) — edge FIU.
- WKU rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. FIU rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge FIU.
Drive-by-drive
FIU 6/10 scoring drives← own end zone →WKU 2/11 scoring drives
FIUFG6 pl, 55 yds· own 25Q1
WKUINT7 pl, 71 yds· own 23Q1
FIUFG5 pl, 87 yds· own 2Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
FIU up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,041 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
97%
FIU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida International vs. Western Kentucky?
Florida International 25, Western Kentucky 6.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WKU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had WKU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.