Wed, Oct 15, 12:00 AM


| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIU | 6 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 25 |
| WKU | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (WKU Elo 1424, FIU Elo 1216) plus home-field advantage. That projects WKU -10.7 (79% to win), essentially in line with the market.
FIU up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,041 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Florida International 25, Western Kentucky 6.
No — the model picked WKU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had WKU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Kejon Owens run for 84 yds to the WKU 14 for a 1ST down
Maverick McIvor pass intercepted Mister Clark return for no gain to the FIU 2
Maverick McIvor pass intercepted Jessiah McGrew return for 31 yds to the FIU 33
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