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Delaware vs. Florida International: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Sep 20, 10:00 PM
Pitbull StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEL | 3 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 38 |
| FIU | 7 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 16 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
FIU 1367
DEL 1454
Projected spread
FIU +1.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
DEL
53% to win
Market spread
FIU -4.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
DEL
5.6 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
47%
FIU · market 63%
Our model blends Elo ratings (FIU Elo 1367, DEL Elo 1454) plus home-field advantage. That projects FIU +1.1 (47% to win) — 5.6 points of value on DEL versus the market line of -4.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
FIU (top)DEL (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: FIU 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
DEL2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedFIU
Offense
0.19
PPA / play
0.1644%
Success rate
41%1.25
Explosiveness
1.313.52
Pts / opportunity
4.1269%
Power success
74%Defense
0.22
PPA allowed / play
0.1742%
Success rate allowed
43%1.42
Explosiveness allowed
1.2716%
Havoc rate
16%21%
Stuff rate
16%Key matchups · Pro
- FIU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. DEL pass defense (0.29 allowed) — edge DEL.
- DEL rush offense (0.05 PPA) vs. FIU rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge FIU.
- FIU rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. DEL rush defense (0.19 allowed) — edge DEL.
Drive-by-drive
DEL 4/8 scoring drives← own end zone →FIU 4/10 scoring drives
DELFG12 pl, 68 yds· own 25Q1
FIUINT8 pl, 64 yds· own 26Q1
DELPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 20Q1
FIUTD3 pl, 54 yds· own 46Q1
DELDOWNS9 pl, 41 yds· own 39Q1
FIUINT3 pl, 3 yds· own 20Q2
DELTD5 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q2
FIUPUNT6 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q2
DELTD8 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q2
FIUTD3 pl, -7 yds· own 25Q2
FIUPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q2
DELINT3 pl, 2 yds· own 46Q2
FIUMISS6 pl, 18 yds· opp 47Q2
FIUFG13 pl, 59 yds· own 23Q3
DELTD12 pl, 79 yds· own 21Q3
FIUTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
DELTD15 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q4
FIUDOWNS15 pl, 74 yds· own 25Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
DEL up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
DEL went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Delaware vs. Florida International?
Delaware 38, Florida International 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (DEL) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had DEL pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.