Western Kentucky vs. South Alabama: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WKUTeam statsUSA
- Q4 6:01USADevin Voisin 12 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Diego Guajardo PAT failed)44–23
- Q4 9:24WKUCory Munson 31 Yd Field Goal 44–17
- Q3 3:12USALa'Damian Webb 5 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Diego Guajardo Kick)41–17
- Q3 5:05WKUCory Munson 31 Yd Field Goal 41–10
- Q3 11:19WKUMalachi Corley 39 Yd pass from Austin Reed (Cory Munson Kick)38–10
- Q3 12:57USADJ Thomas-Jones 10 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Diego Guajardo Kick)31–10
- Q2 0:00WKUMalachi Corley 1 Yd pass from Austin Reed (Cory Munson Kick)31–3
- Q2 1:38USADiego Guajardo 30 Yd Field Goal 24–3
- Q2 9:23WKUCory Munson 23 Yd Field Goal 24–0
- Q2 13:44WKUJaylen Hall 25 Yd pass from Dalvin Smith (Cory Munson Kick)21–0
- Q1 8:46WKUJoey Beljan 27 Yd pass from Austin Reed (Cory Munson Kick)14–0
- Q1 13:11WKUDalvin Smith 44 Yd pass from Austin Reed (Cory Munson Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassAustin Reed 36/55, 497 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushMarkese Stepp 7 CAR, 63 YDS
- RecDalvin Smith 6 REC, 145 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCarter Bradley 36/53, 360 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushLa'Damian Webb 12 CAR, 48 YDS
- RecDevin Voisin 11 REC, 153 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWKU up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:11WKU +15%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 44 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK)
- Q1 8:46WKU +11%
Austin Reed pass complete to Joey Beljan for 27 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK)
- Q2 13:44WKU +7%
Dalvin Smith pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 25 yds for a TD, (Cory Munson KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Kentucky vs. South Alabama?
Western Kentucky 44, South Alabama 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WKU) was correct.
| WKU | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| 677 | Total yards | 421 |
| 522 | Passing yards | 377 |
| 155 | Rushing yards | 44 |
| 30 | First downs | 28 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 7-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-3 |
| 37/56 | Comp/Att | 37/55 |
| 9.3 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 6.0 | Yards per rush | 1.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-70 | Penalties | 3-27 |
| 28:44 | Possession | 31:16 |
Costliest call
Q3 1:17 WKU punt on 4th & 1 at WKU 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:01USADevin Voisin 12 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Diego Guajardo PAT failed)44–23
- Q4 9:24WKUCory Munson 31 Yd Field Goal 44–17
- Q3 3:12USALa'Damian Webb 5 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Diego Guajardo Kick)41–17
- Q3 5:05WKUCory Munson 31 Yd Field Goal 41–10
- Q3 11:19WKUMalachi Corley 39 Yd pass from Austin Reed (Cory Munson Kick)38–10
- Q3 12:57USADJ Thomas-Jones 10 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Diego Guajardo Kick)31–10
- Q2 0:00WKUMalachi Corley 1 Yd pass from Austin Reed (Cory Munson Kick)31–3
- Q2 1:38USADiego Guajardo 30 Yd Field Goal 24–3
- Q2 9:23WKUCory Munson 23 Yd Field Goal 24–0
- Q2 13:44WKUJaylen Hall 25 Yd pass from Dalvin Smith (Cory Munson Kick)21–0
- Q1 8:46WKUJoey Beljan 27 Yd pass from Austin Reed (Cory Munson Kick)14–0
- Q1 13:11WKUDalvin Smith 44 Yd pass from Austin Reed (Cory Munson Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USA Elo 1515, WKU Elo 1663 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects USA +5.9 (36% to win) — 9.4 points clear of WKU's market line of -3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#45 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #88 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →| WKU | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.6 (#40) | CORE overall | +0.8 (#64) |
| +6 / -1 | offense / defense | -2 / -3 |
| 2.77 | points / drive | 2.43 |
| 1.63 | allowed / drive | 1.68 |
| 15% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +15 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →