Tulane vs. East Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TULNTeam statsECU
- Q4 1:06ECUKeaton Mitchell 30 Yd Run (Owen Daffer Kick)29–52
- Q4 6:53TULNMichael Pratt 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)29–45
- Q4 8:15ECURyan Jones 14 Yd pass from Mason Garcia (Owen Daffer Kick)23–45
- Q4 13:33ECURahjai Harris 1 Yd Run (Owen Daffer Kick)23–38
- Q3 3:39TULNCameron Carroll 1 Yd Run (Michael Pratt Run for Two-Point Conversion)23–31
- Q3 10:43TULNMichael Pratt 7 Yd Run (Michael Pratt Pass to Tyrick James for Two-Point Conversion)15–31
- Q2 0:36ECURahjai Harris 3 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Owen Daffer Kick)7–31
- Q2 9:38TULNYgenio Booker 16 Yd pass from Michael Pratt (Merek Glover Kick)7–24
- Q2 13:18ECUTyler Snead 53 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Owen Daffer Kick)0–24
- Q1 1:21ECUKeaton Mitchell 68 Yd Run (Owen Daffer Kick)0–17
- Q1 5:03ECUHolton Ahlers 17 Yd Run (Owen Daffer Kick)0–10
- Q1 10:49ECUOwen Daffer 23 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassMichael Pratt 22/36, 268 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushCam Carroll 9 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDuece Watts 4 REC, 79 YDS
- PassHolton Ahlers 21/32, 288 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKeaton Mitchell 15 CAR, 222 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTyler Snead 4 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsECU up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 5:03ECU +18%
Holton Ahlers run for 17 yds for a TD (Owen Daffer KICK)
- Q3 3:39TULN +16%
Cameron Carroll run for 1 yd for a TD (M. Pratt Run For Two-point Conversion)
- Q1 1:21ECU +12%
Keaton Mitchell run for 68 yds for a TD (Owen Daffer KICK)
- Q4 13:33ECU +11%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd for a TD (Owen Daffer KICK)
- Q2 13:18ECU +8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 53 yds for a TD (Owen Daffer KICK)
- Q1 10:49ECU +8%
Owen Daffer 23 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Tulane vs. East Carolina?
Tulane 29, East Carolina 52.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ECU) was correct.
| TULN | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| 404 | Total yards | 612 |
| 280 | Passing yards | 302 |
| 124 | Rushing yards | 310 |
| 19 | First downs | 25 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 4-5 |
| 23/38 | Comp/Att | 22/34 |
| 7.4 | Yards per pass | 8.9 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 7.0 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-15 | Penalties | 5-51 |
| 25:41 | Possession | 34:19 |
Costliest call
Q3 7:01 ECU punt on 4th & 14 at TULN 31. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.33 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:06ECUKeaton Mitchell 30 Yd Run (Owen Daffer Kick)29–52
- Q4 6:53TULNMichael Pratt 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)29–45
- Q4 8:15ECURyan Jones 14 Yd pass from Mason Garcia (Owen Daffer Kick)23–45
- Q4 13:33ECURahjai Harris 1 Yd Run (Owen Daffer Kick)23–38
- Q3 3:39TULNCameron Carroll 1 Yd Run (Michael Pratt Run for Two-Point Conversion)23–31
- Q3 10:43TULNMichael Pratt 7 Yd Run (Michael Pratt Pass to Tyrick James for Two-Point Conversion)15–31
- Q2 0:36ECURahjai Harris 3 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Owen Daffer Kick)7–31
- Q2 9:38TULNYgenio Booker 16 Yd pass from Michael Pratt (Merek Glover Kick)7–24
- Q2 13:18ECUTyler Snead 53 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Owen Daffer Kick)0–24
- Q1 1:21ECUKeaton Mitchell 68 Yd Run (Owen Daffer Kick)0–17
- Q1 5:03ECUHolton Ahlers 17 Yd Run (Owen Daffer Kick)0–10
- Q1 10:49ECUOwen Daffer 23 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ECU Elo 1415, TULN Elo 1477 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ECU +0.1 (51% to win) — 2.9 points clear of ECU's market line of +3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#44 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #98 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →East Carolina leads 12–9 · Tulane has won 3 straight · 43% have been one-possession games
| TULN | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.8 (#86) | CORE overall | +2.0 (#64) |
| -5 / +0 | offense / defense | +2 / +0 |
| 1.99 | points / drive | 2.39 |
| 2.92 | allowed / drive | 2.05 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -5 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →