#12Holton Ahlers

QB·East Carolina·2022 2021 20198.2 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Holton Ahlers is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for East Carolina. Holton's 2022 season ranks in the 25th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 524 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Holton Ahlers's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2022 Production

Passing

315/469 Comp/Att3708 Pass yards28 Pass TD5 INT67.2% Comp %

Rushing

182 Rush yards6 Rush TD72 Carries2.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2022 · vs QB peers

Efficiency25
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency80
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)25th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:→ Stable

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.13 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.92 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs South Florida (SP+ -17).

NIL Market Tier· 2022

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsNC State	L20-21	6.8	25/41	267	2	2	73.8	57	0	0.39
2	vsOld Dominion	W39-21	-13.0	25/39	270	2	0	69.6	-3	0	0.26
3	vsCampbell	W49-10	—	17/20	263	3	0	87.5	-5	1	0.55
4	vsNavy	L20-23	-7.2	22/34	267	2	1	58.3	23	0	0.36
5	vsSouth Florida	W48-28	-17.0	31/41	465	6	0	94.0	9	0	0.92
6	@Tulane	L9-24	12.4	32/51	288	1	2	52.6	17	0	0.19
7	vsMemphis	W47-45	6.8	26/34	304	1	0	86.5	10	1	0.40
8	vsUCF	W34-13	10.3	30/36	311	1	0	92.3	6	1	0.53
9	@BYU	W27-24	-1.4	15/22	197	0	0	87.3	18	2	0.43
11	@Cincinnati	L25-27	13.1	26/46	280	2	0	68.6	14	0	0.22
12	vsHouston	L3-42	4.5	15/30	182	0	0	3.5	-11	0	-0.27
13	@Temple	W49-46	-12.9	25/37	314	3	0	76.1	-1	0	0.40
1	vsCoastal Carolina	W53-29	0.6	26/38	300	5	0	—	48	1	0.56

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

59.4%

Passing plays

97.0%

Rushing plays

14.5%

Standard downs

51.7%

Passing downs

74.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.26
Passing downs: 0.59
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.41 / 0.41

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2022 · 37 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	East Carolina	7.9	0.467	—	227.3
2021	East Carolina	7.1	0.467	—	238.5
2022	East Carolina	8.2	0.461	-0.01	251.7

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.