#2Keaton Mitchell

RB·East Carolina·20223.5 pts line value

Keaton Mitchell is a Featured Back for East Carolina. Keaton's 2022 season ranks in the 63th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 222 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Keaton Mitchell's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2022 Production

Rushing

1452 Rush yards14 Rush TD201 Carries7.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

27 Receptions252 Rec yards1 Rec TD9.3 Yards/rec

Returns

5 Kick returns133 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2022 · vs RB peers

Efficiency63
Volume78
Explosiveness84
Consistency56
Receiving40

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)63th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency56th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.14 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.94 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Campbell.

NIL Market Tier· 2022

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsNC State	L20-21	6.8	10	36	3.6	0	3	37	0	-0.03
2	vsOld Dominion	W39-21	-13.0	18	160	8.9	2	—	—	—	0.39
3	vsCampbell	W49-10	—	13	185	14.2	1	—	—	—	0.94
4	vsNavy	L20-23	-7.2	5	5	1.0	0	—	—	—	-0.62
6	@Tulane	L9-24	12.4	10	47	4.7	0	8	54	0	0.17
7	vsMemphis	W47-45	6.8	29	149	5.1	3	4	28	0	0.26
8	vsUCF	W34-13	10.3	16	105	6.6	2	3	9	0	0.23
9	@BYU	W27-24	-1.4	21	176	8.4	1	1	8	0	0.29
11	@Cincinnati	L25-27	13.1	16	112	7.0	1	2	15	0	0.35
12	vsHouston	L3-42	4.5	14	128	9.1	0	2	8	0	0.39
13	@Temple	W49-46	-12.9	27	222	8.2	3	2	78	1	0.68
1	vsCoastal Carolina	W53-29	0.6	22	127	5.8	1	2	15	0	0.00

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

27.3%

Passing plays

6.0%

Rushing plays

53.1%

Standard downs

32.3%

Passing downs

17.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.30
Passing downs: 0.23
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.54 / 0.25

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2022 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.