Florida International vs. Marshall: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FIUTeam statsMRSH
- Q4 0:26FIUJose Borregales 38 Yd Field Goal 41–30
- Q4 2:44MRSHTyre Brady 8 Yd pass from Chase Litton (Chase Litton Pass to Willie Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)38–30
- Q4 7:00MRSHMarcel Williams 24 Yd pass from Chase Litton (Chase Litton Pass to Willie Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)38–22
- Q4 8:15FIUJose Borregales 30 Yd Field Goal 38–14
- Q3 4:27MRSHTyler King 26 Yd Run (Kaare Vedvik Kick)35–14
- Q3 6:11FIUBrad Muhammad 12 Yd Interception Return (Jose Borregales Kick)35–7
- Q2 0:31FIUThomas Owens 19 Yd pass from Alex McGough (Jose Borregales Kick)28–7
- Q2 4:55FIUThomas Owens 41 Yd pass from Alex McGough (Jose Borregales Kick)21–7
- Q2 7:37MRSHWillie Johnson 15 Yd pass from Chase Litton (Kaare Vedvik Kick)14–7
- Q1 6:59FIUAlex Gardner 7 Yd Run (Jose Borregales Kick)14–0
- Q1 13:22FIUNapoleon Maxwell 1 Yd Run (Jose Borregales Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassAlex McGough 14/18, 177 YDS, 2 TD
- RushNapoleon Maxwell 11 CAR, 93 YDS, 1 TD
- RecThomas Owens 7 REC, 114 YDS, 2 TD
- PassChase Litton 33/52, 363 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushKeion Davis 11 CAR, 85 YDS
- RecTyre Brady 9 REC, 101 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFIU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 4:55FIU +30%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 41 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)
- Q2 0:31FIU +25%
Alex McGough pass complete to Thomas Owens for 19 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)
- Q1 6:59FIU +20%
Alex Gardner run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)
- Q2 7:37MRSH +19%
Chase Litton pass complete to Willie Johnson for 15 yds for a TD, (Kaare Vedvik KICK)
- Q1 13:22FIU +14%
Napoleon Maxwell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jose Borregales KICK)
- Q4 2:44FIU +13%
Alex Gardner run for no gain to the Marsh 22
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida International vs. Marshall?
Florida International 41, Marshall 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MRSH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FIU | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 401 | Total yards | 505 |
| 177 | Passing yards | 363 |
| 224 | Rushing yards | 142 |
| 21 | First downs | 29 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-3 |
| 14/18 | Comp/Att | 33/52 |
| 9.8 | Yards per pass | 7.0 |
| 4.7 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 6-60 | Penalties | 3-35 |
| 31:57 | Possession | 28:03 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:55 MRSH go for it on 4th & 10 at FIU 19. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.92 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:26FIUJose Borregales 38 Yd Field Goal 41–30
- Q4 2:44MRSHTyre Brady 8 Yd pass from Chase Litton (Chase Litton Pass to Willie Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)38–30
- Q4 7:00MRSHMarcel Williams 24 Yd pass from Chase Litton (Chase Litton Pass to Willie Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)38–22
- Q4 8:15FIUJose Borregales 30 Yd Field Goal 38–14
- Q3 4:27MRSHTyler King 26 Yd Run (Kaare Vedvik Kick)35–14
- Q3 6:11FIUBrad Muhammad 12 Yd Interception Return (Jose Borregales Kick)35–7
- Q2 0:31FIUThomas Owens 19 Yd pass from Alex McGough (Jose Borregales Kick)28–7
- Q2 4:55FIUThomas Owens 41 Yd pass from Alex McGough (Jose Borregales Kick)21–7
- Q2 7:37MRSHWillie Johnson 15 Yd pass from Chase Litton (Kaare Vedvik Kick)14–7
- Q1 6:59FIUAlex Gardner 7 Yd Run (Jose Borregales Kick)14–0
- Q1 13:22FIUNapoleon Maxwell 1 Yd Run (Jose Borregales Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MRSH Elo 1503, FIU Elo 1185 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MRSH -15.1 (84% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#40 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #18 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →Marshall leads 7–2 · Marshall has won 3 straight · 22% have been one-possession games
| FIU | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.1 (#106) | CORE overall | +0.9 (#61) |
| -2 / +12 | offense / defense | -4 / -5 |
| 2.18 | points / drive | 2.03 |
| 2.63 | allowed / drive | 1.58 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →