#14Chase Litton

QB·Marshall·20175.8 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Chase Litton is a Clutch Passer for Marshall. Chase's 2017 season ranks in the 20th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 476 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Chase Litton's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Passing

266/443 Comp/Att3115 Pass yards25 Pass TD14 INT60.0% Comp %

Rushing

12 Rush yards1 Rush TD35 Carries0.3 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs QB peers

Efficiency20
Volume100
Dual-Threat0
Consistency84
Clutch96

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)20th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency84th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.12 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.53 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Cincinnati (SP+ -6).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsMiami (OH)	W31-26	-2.2	20/30	208	1	1	71.1	-8	0	0.05
2	@NC State	L20-37	12.9	26/43	350	2	1	72.5	-11	0	0.52
3	vsKent State	W21-0	-20.2	23/43	223	1	1	68.2	25	1	0.29
5	@Cincinnati	W38-21	-6.4	21/34	233	4	0	91.4	4	0	0.53
6	@Charlotte	W14-3	-26.1	19/28	192	2	0	67.3	21	0	0.18
7	vsOld Dominion	W35-3	-16.8	12/23	176	3	0	58.3	-4	0	0.42
8	@Middle Tennessee	W38-10	-4.9	16/24	168	0	0	86.0	1	0	0.21
9	vsFlorida International	L30-41	-10.4	33/52	363	3	2	64.9	-20	0	0.15
10	@Florida Atlantic	L25-30	5.1	20/39	253	2	4	67.9	13	0	0.37
11	vsWestern Kentucky	W30-23	-4.9	17/28	190	0	1	60.0	4	0	0.11
12	@UTSA	L7-9	-2.5	16/23	189	1	1	47.1	-3	0	0.20
13	vsSouthern Miss	L27-28	-3.4	26/44	308	4	1	73.2	-5	0	0.18
1	vsColorado State	W31-28	3.9	17/32	262	2	2	50.3	-5	0	0.27

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

52.6%

Passing plays

100.0%

Rushing plays

6.3%

Standard downs

45.2%

Passing downs

66.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.14
Passing downs: 0.42
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.29 / -0.25

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.