Virginia vs. Boise State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UVATeam statsBOIS
- Q4 1:03BOISCedrick Wilson 40 Yd pass from Montell Cozart (Haden Hoggarth Kick)42–23
- Q4 2:07BOISTeam Safety 42–16
- Q4 14:14UVAJordan Ellis 1 Yd Run (A.J. Mejia Kick)42–14
- Q3 6:51UVAOlamide Zaccheaus 56 Yd Run (A.J. Mejia Kick)35–14
- Q3 13:31UVAAndre Levrone 64 Yd pass from Kurt Benkert (A.J. Mejia Kick)28–14
- Q2 0:21BOISJake Roh 2 Yd Run (Haden Hoggarth Kick)21–14
- Q2 1:07UVADoni Dowling 27 Yd pass from Kurt Benkert (A.J. Mejia Kick)21–7
- Q2 4:11UVAAndre Levrone 30 Yd pass from Kurt Benkert (A.J. Mejia Kick)14–7
- Q1 3:07UVAJordan Ellis 2 Yd Run (A.J. Mejia Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:02BOISRyan Wolpin 5 Yd Run (Haden Hoggarth Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BOIS played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UVA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.1 vs 3rd & 5.1
- BOIS lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassKurt Benkert 19/29, 273 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJordan Ellis 24 CAR, 93 YDS, 2 TD
- RecAndre Levrone 5 REC, 141 YDS, 2 TD
- PassBrett Rypien 24/42, 285 YDS, 1 INT
- RushRobert Mahone 3 CAR, 21 YDS
- RecCedrick Wilson Jr. 13 REC, 209 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUVA up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:07UVA +28%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 27 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)
- Q3 13:31UVA +23%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 64 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)
- Q2 4:11UVA +23%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 30 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)
- Q2 0:21BOIS +23%
Jake Roh 2 Yd Run (Haden Hoggarth Kick)
- Q3 6:51UVA +15%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 56 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)
- Q1 3:07UVA +14%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds for a TD, (A.J. Mejia KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia vs. Boise State?
Virginia 42, Boise State 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BOIS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UVA | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 440 | Total yards | 383 |
| 273 | Passing yards | 353 |
| 167 | Rushing yards | 30 |
| 21 | First downs | 22 |
| 9-15 | 3rd down | 4-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 19/29 | Comp/Att | 28/53 |
| 9.4 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 1.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-23 | Penalties | 9-64 |
| 33:23 | Possession | 26:37 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:27 BOIS punt on 4th & 5 at UVA 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.67 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:03BOISCedrick Wilson 40 Yd pass from Montell Cozart (Haden Hoggarth Kick)42–23
- Q4 2:07BOISTeam Safety 42–16
- Q4 14:14UVAJordan Ellis 1 Yd Run (A.J. Mejia Kick)42–14
- Q3 6:51UVAOlamide Zaccheaus 56 Yd Run (A.J. Mejia Kick)35–14
- Q3 13:31UVAAndre Levrone 64 Yd pass from Kurt Benkert (A.J. Mejia Kick)28–14
- Q2 0:21BOISJake Roh 2 Yd Run (Haden Hoggarth Kick)21–14
- Q2 1:07UVADoni Dowling 27 Yd pass from Kurt Benkert (A.J. Mejia Kick)21–7
- Q2 4:11UVAAndre Levrone 30 Yd pass from Kurt Benkert (A.J. Mejia Kick)14–7
- Q1 3:07UVAJordan Ellis 2 Yd Run (A.J. Mejia Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:02BOISRyan Wolpin 5 Yd Run (Haden Hoggarth Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BOIS Elo 1633, UVA Elo 1401 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BOIS -11.7 (79% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#19 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #23 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →| UVA | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.1 (#76) | CORE overall | +8.9 (#35) |
| -7 / -3 | offense / defense | +4 / -5 |
| 1.31 | points / drive | 2.45 |
| 2.07 | allowed / drive | 1.63 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +11 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →