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Brett Rypien
Brett Rypien

#4Brett Rypien

QB·Boise State·2018201610.5 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Brett Rypien is a 2-year Clutch Passer for Boise State. Brett's 2018 season ranks in the 65th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 484 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.46
    Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.51
    Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Brett Rypien's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Passing
301/447 Comp/Att3705 Pass yards30 Pass TD7 INT67.3% Comp %
Rushing
23 Rush yards0 Rush TD83 Carries0.3 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs QB peers

  • Efficiency65
  • Volume100
  • Dual-Threat43
  • Consistency77
  • Clutch100
Player type
Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)65th %ile · average
Game-to-game consistency77th %ile · above avg
Key findings
  • ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.16 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
  • ▸Peak game: 1.01 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs UConn (SP+ -26).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

PlayerTeamWEPA/playLine valTotal EPA
Stetson BennettGeorgia0.63512.5323.0
Tanner MordecaiSMU0.63014.0321.5
Ryan HigginsLouisiana Tech0.58613.7334.6
Kyle McCordSyracuse0.50912.1321.4
Trace McSorleyPenn State0.51312.7321.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+1.010−1.01Wk 1 vs Troy: +0.82 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs UConn: +1.01 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs Oklahoma State: +0.33 EPA/play3Wk 5 vs Wyoming: +0.45 EPA/play5Wk 6 vs San Diego State: -0.06 EPA/play6Wk 7 vs Nevada: +0.42 EPA/play7Wk 9 vs Air Force: +0.69 EPA/play9Wk 10 vs BYU: +0.10 EPA/play10Wk 11 vs Fresno State: +0.34 EPA/play11Wk 12 vs New Mexico: +0.38 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs Utah State: +0.52 EPA/play13Wk 14 vs Fresno State: -0.04 EPA/play14
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+C/ATTPass YdsPass TDINTQBRRush YdsRush TDEPA/play
1@TroyW56-202.620/2830540—1400.82
2vsUConnW62-7-26.421/2836230—401.01
3@Oklahoma StateL21-4413.839/5638030—-1900.33
5@WyomingW34-141.928/4234220—600.45
6vsSan Diego StateL13-196.021/4117002—-140-0.06
7@NevadaW31-27-0.528/3829923—2400.42
8vsColorado StateW56-28-10.322/263084095.7-60—
9@Air ForceW48-38-1.820/3439950—-1900.69
10vsBYUW21-166.223/3521411—-100.10
11vsFresno StateW24-1717.424/2926911—3000.34
12@New MexicoW45-14-9.517/2722230—600.38
13vsUtah StateW33-2414.223/3231010—-800.52
14vsFresno StateL16-1917.415/3112510—60-0.04

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
53.9%
Passing plays
97.6%
Rushing plays
11.8%
Standard downs
44.6%
Passing downs
75.4%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.23
Passing downs
0.57
Pass / Rush EPA
0.40 / 0.11

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg
+1.380−0.192018
EPA per play · 2016 — 2018 · 25 games
SeasonTeamLine valueTotal EPA
2016Boise State
10.9
248.8
2018Boise State
10.5
275.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.