#4Brett Rypien

QB·Boise State·2018 201610.9 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Brett Rypien is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Boise State. Brett's 2016 season ranks in the 78th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 405 plays — a above-average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Brett Rypien's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Passing

244/394 Comp/Att3646 Pass yards24 Pass TD8 INT61.9% Comp %

Rushing

-16 Rush yards2 Rush TD48 Carries-0.3 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs QB peers

Efficiency78
Volume100
Dual-Threat65
Consistency78
Clutch99

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)78th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency78th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (78th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 1.25 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs New Mexico (SP+ -5).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Kaidon Salter	Liberty	2023	486	0.711	14.7	345.6
Malik Cunningham	Louisville	2021	502	0.681	14.7	341.6
Blake Sims	Alabama	2014	473	0.696	15.4	329.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Louisiana	W45-10	-8.7	22/33	347	2	0	91.1	-4	0	0.59
2	vsWashington State	W31-28	6.2	19/35	299	1	3	61.7	3	0	0.19
4	@Oregon State	W38-24	-4.6	19/36	215	1	0	41.2	-11	0	0.11
5	vsUtah State	W21-10	-4.4	15/24	163	2	0	66.5	3	0	0.46
6	@New Mexico	W49-21	-5.1	21/28	391	5	0	98.9	1	0	1.25
7	vsColorado State	W28-23	0.8	16/24	207	1	0	72.9	15	0	0.45
8	vsBYU	W28-27	8.0	25/39	442	3	2	52.6	-15	0	0.77
9	@Wyoming	L28-30	-6.9	22/35	295	0	1	54.9	-24	0	0.28
10	vsSan José State	W45-31	-13.6	16/21	219	3	0	80.4	-4	0	0.86
11	@Hawai'i	W52-16	-10.1	18/22	338	4	0	96.0	14	1	1.14
12	vsUNLV	W42-25	-14.3	10/20	109	0	0	83.1	5	1	0.22
13	@Air Force	L20-27	4.4	9/26	316	1	0	24.5	1	0	0.33
1	vsBaylor	L12-31	11.3	32/51	305	1	2	40.3	0	0	-0.01

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

48.2%

Passing plays

96.6%

Rushing plays

6.9%

Standard downs

39.7%

Passing downs

70.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.34
Passing downs: 0.64
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.48 / 0.23

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2018 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	Boise State	10.9	0.580	—	248.8
2018	Boise State	10.5	0.525	-0.05	275.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.