Wake Forest vs. Boston College: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WAKETeam statsBC
- Q4 7:00WAKEMike Weaver 27 Yd Field Goal 34–10
- Q3 4:23WAKECade Carney 3 Yd Run (Mike Weaver Kick)31–10
- Q3 6:15WAKEMike Weaver 28 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q3 10:03BCColton Lichtenberg 30 Yd Field Goal 21–10
- Q2 1:36WAKEEssang Bassey 30 Yd Interception Return (Mike Weaver Kick)21–7
- Q2 3:13BCJon Hilliman 6 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)14–7
- Q2 10:20WAKEJohn Wolford 29 Yd Run (Mike Weaver Kick)14–0
- Q1 1:28WAKEGreg Dortch 9 Yd pass from John Wolford (Mike Weaver Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJohn Wolford 13/19, 151 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJohn Wolford 20 CAR, 92 YDS, 1 TD
- RecGreg Dortch 6 REC, 56 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAnthony Brown Jr. 11/29, 119 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushThadd Smith 5 CAR, 46 YDS
- RecJeff Smith 5 REC, 56 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWAKE up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 1:28WAKE +19%
John Wolford pass complete to Greg Dortch for 9 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)
- Q2 1:36WAKE +17%
Anthony Brown pass intercepted for a TD Essang Bassey return for 30 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)
- Q2 10:20WAKE +16%
John Wolford run for 29 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)
- Q2 3:13BC +16%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jon Hilliman for 6 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)
- Q3 6:15WAKE +7%
Mike Weaver 28 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 10:03BC +5%
Colton Lichtenberg 30 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Wake Forest vs. Boston College?
Wake Forest 34, Boston College 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WAKE | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| 309 | Total yards | 305 |
| 151 | Passing yards | 163 |
| 158 | Rushing yards | 142 |
| 15 | First downs | 19 |
| 7-18 | 3rd down | 6-17 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 13/19 | Comp/Att | 18/41 |
| 7.9 | Yards per pass | 4.0 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 5-40 | Penalties | 0-0 |
| 33:13 | Possession | 26:47 |
Costliest call
Q1 15:00 BC punt on 4th & 1 at BC 37. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.93 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:00WAKEMike Weaver 27 Yd Field Goal 34–10
- Q3 4:23WAKECade Carney 3 Yd Run (Mike Weaver Kick)31–10
- Q3 6:15WAKEMike Weaver 28 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q3 10:03BCColton Lichtenberg 30 Yd Field Goal 21–10
- Q2 1:36WAKEEssang Bassey 30 Yd Interception Return (Mike Weaver Kick)21–7
- Q2 3:13BCJon Hilliman 6 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)14–7
- Q2 10:20WAKEJohn Wolford 29 Yd Run (Mike Weaver Kick)14–0
- Q1 1:28WAKEGreg Dortch 9 Yd pass from John Wolford (Mike Weaver Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BC Elo 1420, WAKE Elo 1475 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BC -0.2 (52% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#43 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #107 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →Boston College leads 14–13–2 · Wake Forest has won 3 straight · 59% have been one-possession games
| WAKE | BC | |
|---|---|---|
| +16.1 (#19) | CORE overall | +11.0 (#29) |
| +13 / -4 | offense / defense | -0 / -11 |
| 2.41 | points / drive | 1.74 |
| 2.01 | allowed / drive | 1.59 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →