#10John Wolford

QB·Wake Forest·201711.7 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

John Wolford is a Dual-Threat QB for Wake Forest. John's 2017 season ranks in the 70th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 500 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So John Wolford's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Passing

239/374 Comp/Att3192 Pass yards29 Pass TD6 INT63.9% Comp %

Rushing

683 Rush yards10 Rush TD140 Carries4.9 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs QB peers

Efficiency70
Volume100
Dual-Threat67
Consistency82
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)70th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency82th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.10 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.91 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs Louisville (SP+ 19).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6
Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	2015	577	0.561	14.1	323.7
J.T. Barrett	Ohio State	2017	576	0.593	14.1	341.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsPresbyterian	W51-7	—	11/15	107	3	0	93.8	47	1	0.72
2	@Boston College	W34-10	4.6	13/19	151	1	0	65.1	92	1	0.33
3	vsUtah State	W46-10	-3.3	12/22	242	2	0	86.9	53	1	0.56
4	@App State	W20-19	3.8	14/27	176	2	0	48.6	77	0	0.25
5	vsFlorida State	L19-26	22.8	24/34	271	0	1	53.4	63	1	0.14
8	@Georgia Tech	L24-38	8.9	17/30	252	2	1	55.7	-5	1	0.18
9	vsLouisville	W42-32	19.2	28/34	461	5	0	98.8	14	1	0.91
10	@Notre Dame	L37-48	20.8	28/45	331	2	1	—	59	1	0.35
11	@Syracuse	W64-43	4.0	25/38	363	3	0	94.1	136	3	0.68
12	vsNC State	W30-24	12.9	19/28	247	3	1	71.1	31	0	0.39
13	vsDuke	L23-31	6.1	16/33	191	2	2	31.3	48	0	0.07
1	vsTexas A&M	W55-52	9.4	32/49	400	4	0	76.0	68	0	0.37

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

56.0%

Passing plays

94.4%

Rushing plays

26.5%

Standard downs

53.3%

Passing downs

62.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.58
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.43 / 0.24

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.