#6Baker Mayfield

QB·Oklahoma·2017 2016 201514.1 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Baker Mayfield is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for Oklahoma. Baker's 2015 season ranks in the 78th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 513 plays — a above-average rate for the QB. Baker's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Baker Mayfield's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Passing

269/395 Comp/Att3700 Pass yards36 Pass TD7 INT68.1% Comp %

Rushing

405 Rush yards7 Rush TD141 Carries2.9 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs QB peers

Efficiency78
Volume100
Dual-Threat78
Consistency80
Clutch48

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)78th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:↑ Rising

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (78th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 0.82 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs Kansas (SP+ -21).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6
J.T. Barrett	Ohio State	2017	576	0.593	14.1	341.6
Malik Cunningham	Louisville	2021	502	0.681	14.7	341.6
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsAkron	W41-3	-0.8	23/33	388	3	0	65.4	8	1	0.57
2	@Tennessee	W31-24	19.5	19/39	187	3	2	36.4	46	1	0.10
3	vsTulsa	W52-38	-8.5	32/38	487	4	0	96.3	85	2	0.82
5	vsWest Virginia	W44-24	12.9	14/25	320	3	1	58.6	-1	0	0.32
6	vsTexas	L17-24	3.7	20/28	211	1	0	32.1	-5	0	0.12
7	@Kansas State	W55-0	2.6	20/27	282	5	0	91.9	33	0	0.68
8	vsTexas Tech	W63-27	4.5	15/22	212	2	1	61.7	16	0	0.27
9	@Kansas	W62-7	-21.3	27/32	383	4	0	96.6	16	0	0.82
10	vsIowa State	W52-16	-0.3	23/31	342	3	0	81.2	27	1	0.51
11	@Baylor	W44-34	19.5	24/34	270	3	1	85.7	76	1	0.50
12	vsTCU	W30-29	19.0	9/20	127	2	0	59.1	42	0	0.04
13	@Oklahoma State	W58-23	9.9	17/25	180	2	0	86.4	77	1	0.56
1	vsClemson	L17-37	24.0	26/41	311	1	2	52.7	-15	0	0.06

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

51.8%

Passing plays

90.3%

Rushing plays

19.6%

Standard downs

47.5%

Passing downs

62.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.39
Passing downs: 0.43
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.43 / 0.29

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 — 2017 · 40 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2015	Oklahoma	14.1	0.561	—	323.7
2016	Oklahoma	22.5	0.854	+0.29	413.2
2017	Oklahoma	21.5	0.798	-0.06	437.3

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.