Baker Mayfield is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for Oklahoma. Baker's 2016 season ranks in the 98th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 428 plays — a elite rate for the QB. Baker's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.
What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.46Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.05Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.51Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Baker Mayfield's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
2016 Production
Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs QB peers
- Efficiency98
- Volume100
- Dual-Threat72
- Consistency89
- Clutch100
A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.
- ▸Top-10% efficiency among QBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
- ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
- ▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
- ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
- ▸11 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.20 from the first to second half of the season.
- ▸Peak game: 1.16 EPA/play in Wk 14 vs Oklahoma State (SP+ 16).
Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.57
- Passing downs
- 0.90
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.77 / 0.26
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.