#7C.J. Stroud

QB·Ohio State·2022 202122.4 pts line value1st Round

C.J. Stroud is a 2-year Clutch Passer for Ohio State. C.J.'s 2021 season ranks in the 98th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 441 plays — a elite rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So C.J. Stroud's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2021 Production

Passing

317/441 Comp/Att4435 Pass yards44 Pass TD6 INT71.9% Comp %

Rushing

-20 Rush yards0 Rush TD32 Carries-0.6 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2021 · vs QB peers

Efficiency98
Volume100
Dual-Threat0
Consistency86
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)98th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency86th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among QBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.15 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.27 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Rutgers (SP+ -3).

NIL Market Tier· 2021

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	2016	484	0.854	22.5	413.2
Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	2017	548	0.798	21.5	437.3
Mac Jones	Alabama	2020	457	0.830	19.2	379.3
Kyler Murray	Oklahoma	2018	563	0.875	24.5	492.9
Jayden Daniels	LSU	2023	461	0.783	17.5	360.8

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Minnesota	W45-31	14.4	13/22	294	4	1	92.0	13	0	0.61
2	vsOregon	L28-35	10.2	35/54	484	3	1	81.4	-3	0	0.39
3	vsTulsa	W41-20	5.8	15/25	185	1	1	59.8	-14	0	0.27
5	@Rutgers	W52-13	-3.0	17/23	330	5	0	98.9	13	0	1.27
6	vsMaryland	W66-17	6.2	24/33	406	5	0	98.5	8	0	0.97
8	@Indiana	W54-7	-7.8	21/28	266	4	0	97.4	1	0	0.77
9	vsPenn State	W33-24	14.3	22/34	305	1	0	89.0	—	—	0.40
10	@Nebraska	W26-17	10.3	36/54	405	2	2	69.6	-13	0	0.17
11	vsPurdue	W59-31	10.3	31/38	361	5	0	97.2	-1	0	0.76
12	vsMichigan State	W56-7	11.2	32/35	432	6	0	98.6	-4	0	0.77
13	@Michigan	L27-42	23.4	34/49	394	2	0	82.8	-30	0	0.49
1	vsUtah	W48-45	15.2	37/46	573	6	1	98.3	10	0	0.81

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

55.3%

Passing plays

94.0%

Rushing plays

5.9%

Standard downs

51.7%

Passing downs

65.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.45
Passing downs: 0.93
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.64 / -0.26

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2021 — 2022 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2021	Ohio State	22.4	0.890	—	438.8
2022	Ohio State	17.6	0.746	-0.14	355.2

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.