#16J.T. Barrett

QB·Ohio State·2017 2016 201414.1 pts line value1st Round

J.T. Barrett is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for Ohio State. J.T.'s 2017 season ranks in the 78th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 463 plays — a above-average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So J.T. Barrett's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Passing

240/371 Comp/Att3053 Pass yards35 Pass TD9 INT64.7% Comp %

Rushing

798 Rush yards12 Rush TD165 Carries4.8 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs QB peers

Efficiency78
Volume100
Dual-Threat92
Consistency82
Clutch73

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)78th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency82th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:→ Stable

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (78th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.22 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.86 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs Nebraska (SP+ 3).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Malik Cunningham	Louisville	2021	502	0.681	14.7	341.6
Kaidon Salter	Liberty	2023	486	0.711	14.7	345.6
Blake Sims	Alabama	2014	473	0.696	15.4	329.4
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Indiana	W49-21	10.2	20/35	304	3	0	76.7	61	1	0.41
2	vsOklahoma	L16-31	25.5	19/35	183	0	1	21.1	66	0	-0.01
3	vsArmy	W38-7	-5.3	25/33	270	2	0	88.3	32	1	0.38
4	vsUNLV	W54-21	-14.5	12/17	209	5	0	98.8	15	0	0.76
5	@Rutgers	W56-0	-5.5	15/23	286	3	0	93.5	78	0	0.62
6	vsMaryland	W62-14	-4.5	20/31	261	3	0	93.1	59	1	0.58
7	@Nebraska	W56-14	2.5	27/33	325	5	0	98.3	48	2	0.86
9	vsPenn State	W39-38	26.0	33/39	328	4	0	79.3	95	0	0.30
10	@Iowa	L24-55	9.8	18/34	208	3	4	33.2	63	0	0.19
11	vsMichigan State	W48-3	13.8	14/21	183	2	2	94.0	55	2	0.48
12	vsIllinois	W52-14	-7.4	11/19	141	2	0	91.5	33	1	0.52
13	@Michigan	W31-20	19.6	3/8	30	1	0	70.9	67	1	0.22
14	vsWisconsin	W27-21	26.8	12/26	211	2	2	32.0	60	1	0.23
1	vsUSC	W24-7	17.9	11/17	114	0	0	74.4	66	2	0.11

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

50.9%

Passing plays

84.0%

Rushing plays

26.1%

Standard downs

47.4%

Passing downs

61.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.33
Passing downs: 0.49
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.39 / 0.36

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 — 2017 · 39 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2014	Ohio State	11.0	0.558	—	292.3
2016	Ohio State	7.5	0.410	-0.15	250.1
2017	Ohio State	14.1	0.593	+0.18	341.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.