#16J.T. Barrett

QB·Ohio State·2017 2016 20147.5 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

J.T. Barrett is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for Ohio State. J.T.'s 2016 season ranks in the 13th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 516 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So J.T. Barrett's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Passing

233/379 Comp/Att2555 Pass yards24 Pass TD7 INT61.5% Comp %

Rushing

845 Rush yards9 Rush TD205 Carries4.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs QB peers

Efficiency13
Volume100
Dual-Threat78
Consistency72
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)13th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency72th %ile · average

Career trajectory:→ Stable

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.17 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.64 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Rutgers (SP+ -15).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsBowling Green	W77-10	-6.6	21/31	349	6	1	89.3	30	1	0.49
2	vsTulsa	W48-3	7.4	14/22	149	0	0	18.0	55	2	0.10
3	@Oklahoma	W45-24	26.1	14/20	152	4	0	80.6	74	0	0.33
5	vsRutgers	W58-0	-14.9	21/29	238	4	1	87.1	46	0	0.64
6	vsIndiana	W38-17	4.6	9/21	93	1	1	35.5	137	1	0.13
7	@Wisconsin	W30-23	16.1	17/29	226	1	1	75.3	92	2	0.38
8	@Penn State	L21-24	19.0	28/43	245	1	0	47.4	26	0	0.18
9	vsNorthwestern	W24-20	2.9	21/32	223	0	0	69.6	71	0	0.32
10	vsNebraska	W62-3	10.3	26/38	290	4	0	91.9	39	0	0.58
11	@Maryland	W62-3	-0.6	18/27	253	2	0	92.3	47	2	0.33
12	@Michigan State	W17-16	7.4	10/22	86	1	0	40.1	105	0	0.00
13	vsMichigan	W30-27	24.4	15/32	124	0	1	38.2	125	1	0.01
1	vsClemson	L0-31	28.7	19/33	127	0	2	15.2	-2	0	-0.23

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

57.7%

Passing plays

92.8%

Rushing plays

31.9%

Standard downs

49.7%

Passing downs

76.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.07
Passing downs: 0.45
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.19 / 0.29

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 — 2017 · 39 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2014	Ohio State	11.0	0.558	—	292.3
2016	Ohio State	7.5	0.410	-0.15	250.1
2017	Ohio State	14.1	0.593	+0.18	341.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.