Arizona State vs. UCLA: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ASUTeam statsUCLA
- Q4 0:45ASUKalen Ballage 23 Yd Run (Zane Gonzalez Kick)38–23
- Q4 4:16ASUTeam Safety31–23
- Q4 9:19UCLAThomas Duarte 17 Yd pass from Josh Rosen (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)29–23
- Q4 13:52UCLAPaul Perkins 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)29–16
- Q3 7:56ASUD.J. Foster 11 Yd pass from Mike Bercovici (Zane Gonzalez Kick)29–10
- Q3 11:05ASUMike Bercovici 34 Yd Run (Zane Gonzalez Kick)22–10
- Q2 0:00UCLAKa'imi Fairbairn 53 Yd Field Goal 15–10
- Q2 0:21ASUZane Gonzalez 25 Yd Field Goal 15–7
- Q2 3:58ASUZane Gonzalez 31 Yd Field Goal 12–7
- Q2 6:42UCLAThomas Duarte 13 Yd pass from Josh Rosen (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)9–7
- Q1 1:21ASUTim White 12 Yd pass from Mike Bercovici (Zane Gonzalez Kick)9–0
- Q1 2:14ASUTeam Safety2–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UCLA lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassMike Bercovici 27/44, 273 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushDemario Richard 23 CAR, 79 YDS
- RecD.J. Foster 4 REC, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJosh Rosen 22/40, 280 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushPaul Perkins 18 CAR, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- RecThomas Duarte 6 REC, 101 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsASU up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,041 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 9:19UCLA +26%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 17 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)
- Q4 5:16ASU +25%
Mike Bercovici pass incomplete
- Q3 11:05ASU +25%
Mike Bercovici run for 34 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)
- Q2 6:42UCLA +22%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Thomas Duarte for 13 yds for a TD, (Ka'imi Fairbairn KICK)
- Q1 1:21ASU +21%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to Tim White for 12 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)
- Q3 7:56ASU +15%
Mike Bercovici pass complete to D.J. Foster for 11 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Arizona State vs. UCLA?
Arizona State 38, UCLA 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UCLA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ASU | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 465 | Total yards | 342 |
| 273 | Passing yards | 280 |
| 192 | Rushing yards | 62 |
| 25 | First downs | 17 |
| 10-23 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 27/44 | Comp/Att | 22/40 |
| 6.2 | Yards per pass | 7.0 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 2.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-39 | Penalties | 6-49 |
| 37:47 | Possession | 22:13 |
Costliest call
Q2 10:47 UCLA punt on 4th & 2 at ASU 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.40 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:45ASUKalen Ballage 23 Yd Run (Zane Gonzalez Kick)38–23
- Q4 4:16ASUTeam Safety31–23
- Q4 9:19UCLAThomas Duarte 17 Yd pass from Josh Rosen (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)29–23
- Q4 13:52UCLAPaul Perkins 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)29–16
- Q3 7:56ASUD.J. Foster 11 Yd pass from Mike Bercovici (Zane Gonzalez Kick)29–10
- Q3 11:05ASUMike Bercovici 34 Yd Run (Zane Gonzalez Kick)22–10
- Q2 0:00UCLAKa'imi Fairbairn 53 Yd Field Goal 15–10
- Q2 0:21ASUZane Gonzalez 25 Yd Field Goal 15–7
- Q2 3:58ASUZane Gonzalez 31 Yd Field Goal 12–7
- Q2 6:42UCLAThomas Duarte 13 Yd pass from Josh Rosen (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)9–7
- Q1 1:21ASUTim White 12 Yd pass from Mike Bercovici (Zane Gonzalez Kick)9–0
- Q1 2:14ASUTeam Safety2–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCLA Elo 1810, ASU Elo 1593 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCLA -11.1 (78% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#22 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #22 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds · #4 of 58 in 2015 by biggest poll gap.
The 2015 upset archive →UCLA leads 23–16–1 · 53% have been one-possession games
| ASU | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.6 (#57) | CORE overall | +12.0 (#29) |
| +3 / -1 | offense / defense | +7 / -5 |
| 2.19 | points / drive | 2.33 |
| 2.14 | allowed / drive | 1.84 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →