#4Demario Richard

RB·Arizona State·20172.3 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Demario Richard is a Explosive Back for Arizona State. Demario's 2017 season ranks in the 25th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 207 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Demario Richard's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Rushing

1027 Rush yards12 Rush TD198 Carries5.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

8 Receptions67 Rec yards0 Rec TD8.4 Yards/rec

Returns

1 Kick returns11 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs RB peers

Efficiency25
Volume65
Explosiveness44
Consistency0
Receiving27

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)25th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.65 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.65 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Oregon State (SP+ -13).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsNew Mexico State	W37-31	-9.4	1	-4	-4.0	0	—	—	—	-2.00
3	@Texas Tech	L45-52	4.8	15	53	3.5	1	—	—	—	-0.21
4	vsOregon	W37-35	9.1	21	64	3.0	1	1	-1	0	-0.10
5	@Stanford	L24-34	15.8	22	80	3.6	2	3	57	0	0.34
7	vsWashington	W13-7	22.1	8	23	2.9	0	2	4	0	-0.21
8	@Utah	W30-10	12.0	18	93	5.2	1	—	—	—	0.14
9	vsUSC	L17-48	17.9	15	70	4.7	0	1	5	0	0.19
10	vsColorado	W41-30	2.0	25	189	7.6	1	—	—	—	0.33
11	@UCLA	L37-44	4.9	21	125	6.0	1	—	—	—	0.33
12	@Oregon State	W40-24	-12.6	17	119	7.0	3	—	—	—	0.65
13	vsArizona	W42-30	3.7	22	165	7.5	2	—	—	—	0.42
1	vsNC State	L31-52	12.9	13	50	3.8	0	1	2	0	-0.06

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

22.7%

Passing plays

3.4%

Rushing plays

39.6%

Standard downs

28.5%

Passing downs

9.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.19
Passing downs: 0.13
Pass / Rush EPA: -0.03 / 0.20

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.