Josh Rosen is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for UCLA. Josh's 2017 season ranks in the 35th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 473 plays — a developing rate for the QB. A five-star recruit in the class of 2015, Josh has shown flashes of the talent that made him a coveted recruit.
What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.46Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.05Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.51Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Josh Rosen's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
Recruiting Profile· Class of 2015
- Stars
- ★★★★★
- 247 composite
- 0.9932
- National rank
- #11
- High school
- St. John Bosco
- Hometown
- Bellflower, CA
Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.
2017 Production
Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs QB peers
- Efficiency35
- Volume100
- Dual-Threat79
- Consistency72
- Clutch70
A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.
- ▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
- ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
- ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
- ▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.23 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 1.06 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Hawai'i (SP+ -20).
Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.23
- Passing downs
- 0.38
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.29 / 0.29
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.