Arkansas State vs. App State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARSTTeam statsAPP
- Q4 3:32APPMontez McGuire 27 Yd pass from Taylor Lamb (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)40–27
- Q4 6:26ARSTJD Houston 23 Yd Field Goal 40–21
- Q4 12:50ARSTJD Houston 26 Yd Field Goal 37–21
- Q3 3:53ARSTJD Houston 32 Yd Field Goal 34–21
- Q3 10:17ARSTMichael Gordon 73 Yd Run (JD Houston Kick)31–21
- Q3 13:25ARSTJohnston White 26 Yd Run (JD Houston Kick)24–21
- Q2 4:50ARSTJD Houston 25 Yd Field Goal 17–21
- Q2 13:44APPDante Jones 24 Yd pass from Taylor Lamb (Zach Matics Kick)14–21
- Q1 1:30ARSTChris Stone 19 Yd Fumble Return (JD Houston Kick)14–14
- Q1 6:04APPBarrett Burns 29 Yd pass from Taylor Lamb (Zach Matics Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:33ARSTTres Houston 8 Yd pass from Fredi Knighten (JD Houston Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:45APPMalachi Jones 12 Yd pass from Taylor Lamb (Zach Matics Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassFredi Knighten 14/25, 208 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMichael Gordon 17 CAR, 136 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDijon Paschal 4 REC, 117 YDS
- PassTaylor Lamb 22/35, 321 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushMarcus Cox 16 CAR, 74 YDS
- RecShaedon Meadors 3 REC, 78 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARST up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 10:17ARST +27%
Michael Gordon run for 73 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)
- Q3 13:25ARST +21%
Johnston White run for 26 yds for a TD, (JD Houston KICK)
- Q3 3:53ARST +14%
JD Houston 32 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 4:41ARST +13%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres Houston
- Q2 13:44APP +11%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Dante Jones for 24 yds for a TD, (Zach Matics KICK)
- Q1 8:33ARST +10%
Tres Houston 8 Yd pass from Fredi Knighten (JD Houston Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas State vs. App State?
Arkansas State 40, App State 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked APP, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ARST | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| 517 | Total yards | 465 |
| 208 | Passing yards | 357 |
| 309 | Rushing yards | 108 |
| 24 | First downs | 19 |
| 7-16 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 14/25 | Comp/Att | 23/36 |
| 8.3 | Yards per pass | 9.9 |
| 5.9 | Yards per rush | 3.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 2-5 | Penalties | 6-64 |
| 32:00 | Possession | 28:00 |
Costliest call
Q1 3:17 ARST punt on 4th & 11 at APP 34. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.00 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:32APPMontez McGuire 27 Yd pass from Taylor Lamb (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)40–27
- Q4 6:26ARSTJD Houston 23 Yd Field Goal 40–21
- Q4 12:50ARSTJD Houston 26 Yd Field Goal 37–21
- Q3 3:53ARSTJD Houston 32 Yd Field Goal 34–21
- Q3 10:17ARSTMichael Gordon 73 Yd Run (JD Houston Kick)31–21
- Q3 13:25ARSTJohnston White 26 Yd Run (JD Houston Kick)24–21
- Q2 4:50ARSTJD Houston 25 Yd Field Goal 17–21
- Q2 13:44APPDante Jones 24 Yd pass from Taylor Lamb (Zach Matics Kick)14–21
- Q1 1:30ARSTChris Stone 19 Yd Fumble Return (JD Houston Kick)14–14
- Q1 6:04APPBarrett Burns 29 Yd pass from Taylor Lamb (Zach Matics Kick)7–14
- Q1 8:33ARSTTres Houston 8 Yd pass from Fredi Knighten (JD Houston Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:45APPMalachi Jones 12 Yd pass from Taylor Lamb (Zach Matics Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (APP Elo 1711, ARST Elo 1381 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects APP -15.6 (85% to win) — 3.1 points clear of APP's market line of -12.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2015
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#30 of 92 in 2015 by biggest miss · #25 of 108 in 2015 by longest odds.
The 2015 upset archive →| ARST | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| -2.6 (#75) | CORE overall | +13.0 (#27) |
| -3 / -1 | offense / defense | +6 / -7 |
| 2.19 | points / drive | 2.62 |
| 1.88 | allowed / drive | 1.34 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -6 | pass over expected | -12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →