#9Fredi Knighten

QB·Arkansas State·20143.6 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Fredi Knighten is a Clutch Passer for Arkansas State. Fredi's 2014 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 604 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Fredi Knighten's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Passing

269/432 Comp/Att3277 Pass yards24 Pass TD7 INT62.3% Comp %

Rushing

779 Rush yards11 Rush TD211 Carries3.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat40
Consistency69
Clutch64

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency69th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Peak game: 0.73 EPA/play in Wk 14 vs New Mexico State (SP+ -23).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsMontana State	W37-10	—	19/29	219	1	0	52.6	93	0	0.26
2	@Tennessee	L19-34	12.2	21/34	166	1	0	68.6	65	1	0.26
3	@Miami	L20-41	13.9	22/40	217	0	0	19.2	5	1	0.12
4	vsUtah State	W21-14	6.0	19/33	190	1	1	23.0	6	0	-0.22
6	vsUL Monroe	W28-14	-10.0	21/36	284	1	2	47.5	71	3	0.18
7	@Georgia State	W52-10	-22.8	20/26	215	3	0	94.9	93	1	0.57
9	@Louisiana	L40-55	2.2	26/37	344	3	1	69.2	61	1	0.38
10	@Idaho	W44-28	-17.4	21/28	244	0	0	53.8	73	0	0.16
11	vsSouth Alabama	W45-10	-4.3	17/32	186	2	0	80.6	80	1	0.30
12	vsApp State	L32-37	-8.3	14/28	147	3	0	42.7	35	1	0.05
13	@Texas State	L27-45	-7.4	31/57	366	2	1	32.3	40	0	-0.01
14	vsNew Mexico State	W68-35	-23.3	15/21	296	2	2	77.1	153	2	0.73
1	vsToledo	L44-63	2.3	23/31	403	5	0	63.0	4	0	0.20

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

62.0%

Passing plays

96.6%

Rushing plays

33.3%

Standard downs

54.8%

Passing downs

76.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.14
Passing downs: 0.26
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.23 / 0.10

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.