#14Marcus Cox

RB·App State·20142.9 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Marcus Cox is a Featured Back for App State. Marcus's 2014 season ranks in the 23th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 257 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Marcus Cox's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Rushing

1415 Rush yards19 Rush TD255 Carries5.5 Yards/carry

Receiving

16 Receptions180 Rec yards0 Rec TD11.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs RB peers

Efficiency23
Volume89
Explosiveness50
Consistency69
Receiving40

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)23th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency69th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.26 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.55 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Georgia State (SP+ -23).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
Eno Benjamin	Arizona State	2018	316	0.330	4.6	104.3
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Michigan	L14-52	8.2	11	47	4.3	1	—	—	—	0.27
2	vsCampbell	W66-0	—	20	114	5.7	2	1	12	0	0.32
4	@Southern Miss	L20-21	-15.9	22	119	5.4	1	2	7	0	0.21
5	@Georgia Southern	L14-34	-2.4	10	39	3.9	1	3	24	0	-0.03
6	vsSouth Alabama	L21-47	-4.3	8	16	2.0	0	1	23	0	-0.14
7	vsLiberty	L48-55	—	17	111	6.5	1	—	—	—	-0.10
8	@Troy	W53-14	-15.9	16	123	7.7	3	—	—	—	0.51
10	vsGeorgia State	W44-0	-22.8	29	250	8.6	3	2	4	0	0.55
11	vsUL Monroe	W31-29	-10.0	21	94	4.5	1	5	56	0	0.34
12	@Arkansas State	W37-32	-0.3	40	229	5.7	2	2	54	0	0.44
13	@Louisiana	W35-16	2.2	36	151	4.2	2	—	—	—	-0.01
14	vsIdaho	W45-28	-17.4	25	122	4.9	2	—	—	—	0.26

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

31.3%

Passing plays

6.9%

Rushing plays

48.2%

Standard downs

36.1%

Passing downs

20.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.17
Passing downs: 0.36
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.30 / 0.20

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.