@ Arizona · Wk 3Win prob 2%Model +31.6Schedule & Results
IOWAIowaL0-40✓Wk 2vsILSTIllinois StateL24-28✗Wk 3@ARIZArizona+31.62%Wk 4@
GASTGeorgia State+8.230%Wk 6vs
AFAir Force+13.320%Wk 7@
WYOWyoming+11.422%Wk 8vs
HAWHawai'i+22.09%Wk 9@
UNLVUNLV+26.65%Wk 10@
SJSUSan José State-0.351%Wk 11vs
NEVNevada+4.639%Wk 12@
NDSUNorth Dakota State+16.513%Wk 13vs
UTEPUTEP-7.569%Team Leaders
Taron DickensPassing289 yds · 1 TD · 2 INT
Telly Johnson Jr.Rushing99 yds · 1 TD · 3.3 avg
La'Don BryantReceiving6 rec · 89 yds · 0 TD
Kimar NelsonTackles19 tackles · 1.5 TFL · 0.5 sacks
Latest on Northern Illinois
All news →Kamari Moulton ran for 183 yards and Iowa did not need much else
Northern Illinois kept the passing game that ranked 134th
Roster · 113 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Brady Davidson | QB | SO | 6'5" | 230 | Columbia, MO |
| 5 | Taron Dickens | QB | JR | 5'11" | 180 | Miami, FL |
| 10 | Bryshawn Brown | QB | FR | 6'6" | 200 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 14 | Jalen Macon | QB | SR | 6'5" | 230 | Nashville, TN |
| 15 | Ean Hamric | QB | SR | 6'1" | 200 | Glenville, WV |
| 16 | Asa Johnson | QB | FR | 6'4" | 210 | Aurora, IL |
| 18 | Cole Latimer | QB | FR | 6'4" | 200 | Dekalb, IL |
| 8 | Triston White | RB | FR | 5'10" | 214 | Nashville, GA |
| 11 | Romelo Ware | RB | SO | 5'9" | 200 | Orlando, FL |
| 20 | Jaidaun Cranford | RB | FR | 5'9" | 190 | Metamora, IL |
| 24 | Elijah Porter | RB | SO | 5'11" | 202 | Ankeny, IA |
| 30 | Da'sean Howard | RB | FR | 6'1" | 220 | Brunswick, GA |
| 32 | Reginald Craig | RB | FR | 5'11" | 210 | Chicago, IL |
| 45 | Telly Johnson Jr. | RB | JR | 5'11" | 215 | Augusta, GA |
| 0 | La'Don Bryant | WR | SO | 6'4" | 204 | Savannah, GA |
| 1 | DeAree Rogers | WR | SR | 5'11" | 200 | Lexington, SC |
| 3 | Rickey Taylor Jr. | WR | SO | 6'1" | 180 | Chicago, IL |
| 4 | Kenji Lewis | WR | SR | 6'1" | 200 | Memphis, TN |
| 6 | Afy Ibekwe | WR | FR | 6'1" | 200 | Anoka, MN |
| 7 | Cam Thompson | WR | SR | 6'0" | 200 | Boardman, OH |
| 9 | George Dimopoulos | WR | JR | 6'2" | 200 | Crystal Lake, IL |
| 12 | Tavaris Coles | WR | JR | 6'3" | 190 | Bessemer, AL |
| 13 | Kevin Holmes Jr. | WR | JR | 6'6" | 202 | Bryan, TX |
| 19 | Kelan McInerney | WR | SO | 6'2" | 170 | Hinsdale, IL |
| 21 | Jermaine Green Jr. | WR | FR | 6'0" | 195 | Omaha, NE |
| 80 | Braylon Agee | WR | FR | 6'4" | 200 | Kansas City, MO |
| 81 | Justin Faulkner | WR | FR | 6'1" | 170 | Bremen, GA |
| 88 | Zaire McKinney | WR | FR | 6'4" | 195 | Michigan City, IN |
| 49 | Devin Habermehl | TE | SO | 6'1" | 255 | Collinsville, IL |
| 82 | Caleb Haack | TE | FR | 6'9" | 250 | Marengo, IA |
| 83 | Jason Fowler | TE | SO | 6'5" | 252 | Skokie, IL |
| 84 | Glen Weber | TE | JR | 6'6" | 260 | Oakdale, CA |
| 85 | Joe Stein | TE | SO | 6'6" | 252 | Grand Island, NE |
| 86 | Brady Hasquin | TE | FR | 6'6" | 230 | Edwardsville, IL |
| 87 | Liam Russo | TE | FR | 6'5" | 250 | St. Louis, MO |
| 89 | Tyler Klaner | TE | FR | 6'4" | 260 | Boonville, IN |
| 50 | Brendan Grabot | OL | FR | 6'3" | 308 | Pleasant Prairie, WI |
| 53 | Luke Skartvedt | OL | JR | 6'3" | 337 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 55 | Ty Mead | OL | SR | 6'2" | 296 | Avon, IN |
| 58 | Ross Liegel | OL | SO | 6'6" | 278 | Rock Springs, WI |
| 61 | Ben Gustafson | OL | SO | 6'8" | 302 | Elkhorn, NE |
| 63 | Landon Hron | OL | JR | 6'3" | 335 | Hartford, WI |
| 66 | Lane Mahnesmith | OL | SO | 6'8" | 320 | Troy, IL |
| 67 | Tyler Rindels | OL | FR | 6'4" | 295 | Iowa City, IA |
| 68 | Samir Senenat | OL | SO | 6'4" | 285 | Carol Stream, IL |
| 69 | Logan Gross | OL | SO | 6'4" | 300 | Sun Prairie, WI |
| 70 | Chevy Trask | OL | SR | 6'5" | 290 | Chicago, IL |
| 71 | Cian Mahoney | OL | FR | 6'5" | 270 | Springfield, IL |
| 72 | Mason Markel | OL | FR | 6'5" | 307 | Blue Springs, MO |
| 74 | Erik Murray | OL | FR | 6'5" | 275 | Arlington Heights, IL |
| 75 | Braden Petzel | OL | FR | 6'9" | 290 | Mankato, MN |
| 76 | Tyler Chambers | OL | FR | 6'5" | 300 | Western Springs, IL |
| 77 | Daine Hanson | OL | SR | 6'7" | 315 | La Grange Park, IL |
| 78 | Jacob Welch | OL | JR | 6'6" | 316 | Johnsburg, IL |
| 79 | Kellen Gamble | OL | FR | 6'5" | 268 | Flossmoor, IL |
| 13 | Mathias Smith-Davis | DE | SO | 6'1" | 240 | Detroit, MI |
| 18 | Jay'shon Thomas | DE | JR | 6'4" | 246 | Cataula, GA |
| 19 | James Bradley | DE | JR | 6'5" | 250 | New Orleans, LA |
| 24 | Darrius Summers III | DE | FR | 6'4" | 245 | Detroit, MI |
| 45 | Trenton Nixon | DE | FR | 6'2" | 245 | Merrillville, IN |
| 53 | Charles Brooks III | DE | FR | 6'5" | 242 | St. Louis, MO |
| 56 | Joseph Nnamuchi | DE | JR | 6'7" | 258 | Louisville, KY |
| 87 | Micah Cook | DE | FR | 6'6" | 251 | Johnston, IA |
| 90 | Kole Sneed | DE | JR | 6'2" | 255 | Oak Park, IL |
| 93 | Fawzy Omotoso | DE | FR | 6'3" | 251 | Avon, IN |
| 97 | JT King | DE | FR | 6'4" | 240 | Summerville, SC |
| 0 | Montrel Canion | DT | FR | 6'2" | 295 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 11 | Amari Washington | DT | FR | 6'3" | 295 | Bettendorf, IA |
| 50 | Matthew Scarlett | DT | JR | 6'3" | 285 | Washington, DC |
| 54 | Zach Morrisroe | DT | FR | 6'2" | 300 | Oswego, IL |
| 55 | Jordan Bellamy | DT | FR | 6'2" | 314 | St. Petersburg, FL |
| 58 | Christopher Allen | DT | SR | 6'4" | 302 | Raleigh, NC |
| 64 | Eli Valencia | DT | FR | 6'1" | 309 | Chicago, IL |
| 72 | Terry Robinson | DT | FR | 6'3" | 270 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 91 | Jvon Hatcher | DT | FR | 6'2" | 259 | Delray Beach, FL |
| 92 | Jacob McGhee | DT | JR | 6'2" | 316 | Chicago, IL |
| 94 | Brendan Alexander | DT | FR | 6'2" | 270 | Monaca, PA |
| 95 | Ryan Hassett | DT | FR | 6'4" | 275 | Calgary, AB |
| 6 | Jashawn Nelson | LB | FR | 6'2" | 230 | Fort Wayne, IN |
| 8 | Cooper Mau | LB | JR | 6'1" | 225 | San Diego, CA |
| 15 | Broderick Windham | LB | SR | 6'2" | 220 | Corona, CA |
| 23 | Deacon King | LB | FR | 6'1" | 227 | Westfield, IN |
| 25 | Brady Kerperin | LB | SO | 6'2" | 230 | Jefferson City, MO |
| 27 | Trey Porter | LB | SR | 6'0" | 211 | Des Moines, IA |
| 33 | Ross Odgen | LB | FR | 6'3" | 215 | Bloomington, IN |
| 44 | Jack Murray | LB | FR | 6'2" | 236 | Brookfield, WI |
| 47 | Eliot Hummer | LB | FR | 6'2" | 230 | O' Fallon, MO |
| 57 | Kimar Nelson | LB | FR | 6'2" | 220 | Fort Wayne, IN |
| 3 | Liam Lindo | CB | SR | 6'3" | 200 | Wallkill, NY |
| 4 | James Little IV | CB | SO | 5'11" | 181 | Fort Myers, FL |
| 5 | Yassine Falke | CB | JR | 6'3" | 190 | Indianapolis, IN |
| 9 | Dev'ion Reynolds | CB | SO | 6'1" | 190 | Zion, IL |
| 20 | Marshall Washington | CB | JR | 6'2" | 180 | Camden, NJ |
| 28 | Omar Williams Jr. | CB | FR | 6'3" | 185 | Lafayette, IN |
| 29 | Romelo Walker | CB | SO | 6'1" | 184 | Orlando, FL |
| 35 | Cristian Harkins | CB | FR | 6'0" | 185 | Lombard, IL |
| 2 | Avery Jones | DB | SR | 6'0" | 195 | Columbia, MO |
| 12 | Aaron Warren | DB | SR | 6'3" | 208 | Chicago, IL |
| 17 | Justus Donahoo | DB | FR | 6'1" | 195 | Niceville, FL |
| 21 | Austin Tillman | DB | FR | 5'11" | 190 | St. Louis, MO |
| 7 | Justin Harris | S | JR | 6'4" | 202 | Richmond, VA |
| 14 | Malik Armstrong | S | SR | 6'0" | 192 | Joliet, IL |
| 16 | Kyon Conyers | S | JR | 5'11" | 195 | Millville, NJ |
| 22 | Keagan Ruane-Martino | S | FR | 5'11" | 183 | Frankfort, IL |
| 26 | Tyrese Stanley | S | JR | 6'2" | 200 | Baltimore, MD |
| 30 | Andruw Ellis | S | FR | 6'0" | 196 | Roxana, IL |
| 31 | Champ Smith III | S | FR | 6'2" | 190 | Miami, FL |
| 33 | JJ Schlenhardt | PK | FR | 5'11" | 185 | Park Ridge, IL |
| 39 | Ryan Short | PK | SR | 6'0" | 185 | Hinsdale, IL |
| 35 | Carter Klementzos | P | FR | 5'11" | 180 | Salem, WI |
| 36 | Jake Ference | P | SO | 6'0" | 195 | St. Louis, MO |
| 41 | Troy Stumbaugh | LS | FR | 5'9" | 195 | Plainfield, IL |
| 43 | Jason Evans | LS | JR | 5'10" | 229 | Lodi, CA |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Northern Illinois is in year 1 under Rob Harley. The strengths are defensive, led by 32nd at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 138th at staying on schedule through the air, and they are 135th at generating havoc.
Northern Illinois has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#32projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#138projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#135projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#132projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.54#118
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 0.74 / 0.42
- Power / stuff (off)
- 55.6% / 25.6%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 11.9%#124
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 6.3% / 5.6%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | -0.14#126 | -0.17#129 | 0.30#108 |
| Defense | -0.07#60 | 0.03#48 | 0.85#125 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play-0.331st
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.0650th
- Offense success rate17%1st
- Defense success rate allowed42%34th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs18%1st
- Offense success — passing downs16%7th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs49%26th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs27%51st
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.477th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.247th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.603rd
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.589th
Trenches
- Offense line yards1.74th
- Defense line yards allowed3.316th
- Offense highlight yards0.007th
- Defense highlight yards allowed3.24th
- Offense power success1.099th
- Defense power success allowed0.2985th
- Offense stuff rate0.289th
- Defense stuff rate0.2155th
Third down
- Third down conversion21%11th
- Third down distance faced7.234th
- Third down conversion allowed43%34th
- Third down distance forced6.631st
Halves
- Net success rate — first half-0.381st
- Net success rate — second half-0.0628th
Drives
- Points per drive-0.501st
- Points per drive allowed2.634th
- Average starting field position2210th
- Opponent starting field position408th
- Available yards gained12%1st
- Available yards allowed61%25th
- Scoring opportunities per drive50%7th
- Scoring opportunities allowed100%16th
- Points per scoring opportunity0.005th
- Points allowed per opportunity2.653rd
- Three-and-out rate71%1st
- Three-and-outs forced23%48th
Roster
- Returning usage47%55th
- Returning EPA35.820th
- Team talent composite5379th
- Recruiting class rank82.041st
- Recruiting class points18541st
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.208 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
0-2 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 14 drives
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Northern Illinois is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Northern Illinois in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0% | 0.9 | -0.9 |
| 2025 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 25% | 4.6 | -1.6 |
| 2024 | 8-5 | 4-4 | 62% | 10.1 | -2.1 |
| 2023 | 7-6 | 5-3 | 54% | 7.9 | -0.9 |
| 2022 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 25% | 5.7 | -2.7 |
| 2021 | 9-5 | 7-2 | 64% | 8.7 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 0-6 | 0-6 | 0% | 0.7 | -0.7 |
| 2019 | 5-7 | 4-4 | 42% | 5.5 | -0.5 |
| 2018 | 8-6 | 7-2 | 57% | 6.5 | +1.5 |
| 2017 | 8-5 | 6-2 | 62% | 8.0 | +0.0 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-1 so far, projected to finish 4.5-7.5. Wins the Mountain West in 0.5%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count.
down 0.0 points since preseason — lost 0-40 to Iowa against an expected margin of −34, so −5.8 against the number.
- The Mountain West takes 0.23 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.0% of seasons, having won their league in 67% of those.
Northern Illinois’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk9at UNLV0.1
- wk11vs Nevada0.0
- wk10at San José State0.0
- wk8vs Hawai'i0.0
- wk7at Wyoming0.0
- wk6vs Air Force0.0
Who to root for
Games Northern Illinois is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk13Charlotte over Navy0.0
- wk11Northwestern over Ohio State0.0
- wk2Bowling Green over Nebraska0.0
- wk12Nebraska over Ohio State0.0
- wk10Sacramento State over Toledo0.0
- wk9Stanford over Louisville0.0
Mountain West
0-0 in league play, projected 2.8-5.28 of 10 by title oddsThe Mountain West sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 35% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk9Northern Illinois at UNLV3.7
- wk3Northern Illinois at Arizona1.9
- wk6Air Force at Northern Illinois1.6
- wk11Nevada at Northern Illinois1.6
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Mountain West race →
If not the playoff, then
Northern Illinois is 0-1 and needs 6 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 3.0% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- Famous Idaho Potato Bowl7.7%
- Hawai'i Bowl6.3%
- Arizona Bowl6.1%
- New Mexico Bowl2.1%
- Cure Bowl1.3%
- LA Bowl0.8%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 3 have sent Northern Illinois a player since 2010 — 9 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Northern Illinois's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.