Northern Illinois vs. Wyoming Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Neither side projects a clear way in. Northern Illinois and Wyoming rate within touching distance on every unit matchup here, closest at running it — on this evidence it comes down to the things a season profile cannot see.
The two teams
Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois is in year 1 under Rob Harley. The strengths are defensive, led by 32nd at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 138th at staying on schedule through the air, and they are 135th at generating havoc.
Northern Illinois has played 1 FBS opponent, but with much of the country still on non-conference openers there is no national field to measure that against yet — so this stays the projection until there is.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#32projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#138projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#135projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#132projected
Wyoming
Wyoming is in year 3 under Jay Sawvel. The way in is 129th at surviving second and twelve, and they are 129th at turning trips inside the 40 into points.
Wyoming has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#129projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#129projected
- Offensethrowing it#127projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WYO Elo 1300, NIU Elo 1266 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WYO -11.4 (78% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
NIU137th101stWYOWYO109th120thNIUThrough the air
NIU123rd94thWYOWYO121st87thNIUOn the ground
NIU138th97thWYOWYO79th136thNIUStaying on the field
NIU127th92ndWYOWYO123rd97thNIUTaking care of it
NIU68th53rdWYOWYO133rd88thNIU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NIU | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| -23.1 (#136) | CORE overall | -12.9 (#123) |
| -15 / +8 | offense / defense | -10 / +3 |
| -0.50 | points / drive | 1.00 |
| 2.62 | allowed / drive | 3.50 |
| 71% | three-and-outs | 50% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Northern Illinois vs. Wyoming?
Gridpex's model favors Wyoming with a 78% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Northern Illinois vs. Wyoming?
The model projects Wyoming by 11.4.
What time is Northern Illinois vs. Wyoming and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM ET, at War Memorial Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →