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Travis Etienne

#9Travis Etienne

RB·Clemson·20202019201820176.8 pts line value1st Round

Travis Etienne is a 4-year Explosive Back for Clemson. Travis's 2018 season ranks in the 98th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 198 plays — a elite rate for the RB. Production has trended downward season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.52
    Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.41
    Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Travis Etienne's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2017

4-Star · High major target
Stars
247 composite
0.9171
National rank
#216
High school
Jennings
Hometown
Jennings, LA

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2018 Production

Rushing
1658 Rush yards24 Rush TD204 Carries8.1 Yards/carry
Receiving
12 Receptions78 Rec yards2 Rec TD6.5 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs RB peers

  • Efficiency98
  • Volume59
  • Explosiveness100
  • Consistency76
  • Receiving31
Player type
Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)98th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency76th %ile · above avg
Career trajectory:↓ Declining
Key findings
  • Top-10% efficiency among RBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • Production has slipped season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
  • High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • 8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • Production faded as the season progressed — 0.12 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
  • Peak game: 0.98 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Wake Forest (SP+ 4).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

PlayerTeamWEPA/playLine valTotal EPA
Darrell HendersonMemphis0.5907.3133.3
Anthony WalesWestern Kentucky0.5707.0134.0
Devon JohnsonMarshall0.5206.0108.2
RJ HarveyUCF0.4706.9113.7
Clyde Edwards-HelaireLSU0.4905.0105.8

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+0.9800.98Wk 1 vs Furman: +0.08 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Texas A&M: +0.47 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs Georgia Southern: +0.65 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs Georgia Tech: +0.83 EPA/play4Wk 5 vs Syracuse: +0.53 EPA/play5Wk 6 vs Wake Forest: +0.98 EPA/play6Wk 8 vs NC State: +0.21 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs Florida State: -0.13 EPA/play9Wk 10 vs Louisville: +0.93 EPA/play10Wk 11 vs Boston College: +0.10 EPA/play11Wk 12 vs Duke: +0.37 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs South Carolina: +0.45 EPA/play13Wk 14 vs Pittsburgh: +0.87 EPA/play14Wk 1 vs Notre Dame: +0.08 EPA/play1Wk 1 vs Alabama: +0.08 EPA/play1
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+CarRush YdsAvgRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDEPA/play
1vsFurmanW48-711635.710.08
2@Texas A&MW28-2621.68445.5132300.47
3vsGeorgia SouthernW38-7-2.41616210.120.65
4@Georgia TechW49-210.31112211.111310.83
5vsSyracuseW27-237.5272037.531-300.53
6@Wake ForestW63-33.61016716.730.98
8vsNC StateW41-79.415392.6312400.21
9@Florida StateW59-101.410454.50-0.13
10vsLouisvilleW77-16-9.1815319.110.93
11@Boston CollegeW27-72.411787.103900.10
12vsDukeW35-65.09819.020.37
13vsSouth CarolinaW56-3514.9281505.421900.45
14vsPittsburghW42-102.71215613.020.87
1vsNotre DameW30-320.7141097.811800.08
1vsAlabamaW44-1636.314866.121510.08

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
20.7%
Passing plays
3.5%
Rushing plays
37.2%
Standard downs
24.7%
Passing downs
10.0%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.52
Passing downs
0.15
Pass / Rush EPA
0.15 / 0.51

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg
+1.980−0.54201820192020
EPA per play · 2017 — 2020 · 54 games
SeasonTeamLine valueTotal EPA
2017Clemson
3.2
58.9
2018Clemson
6.8
132.7
2019Clemson
4.7
100.1
2020Clemson
3.2
65.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.