#47Devon Johnson

RB·Marshall·20146.0 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Devon Johnson is a Explosive Back for Marshall. Devon's 2014 season ranks in the 88th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 193 plays — a above-average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Devon Johnson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Rushing

1767 Rush yards17 Rush TD206 Carries8.6 Yards/carry

Receiving

6 Receptions121 Rec yards2 Rec TD20.2 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs RB peers

Efficiency88
Volume61
Explosiveness100
Consistency87
Receiving13

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)88th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency87th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the RB position (88th percentile).
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸9 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 1.00 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Old Dominion (SP+ -13).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2015	228	0.450	5.8	102.6
Tyjae Spears	Tulane	2022	234	0.450	5.7	105.3
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Anthony Wales	Western Kentucky	2016	235	0.570	7.0	134.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Miami (OH)	W42-27	-18.7	19	151	7.9	2	1	9	0	0.31
2	vsRhode Island	W48-7	—	14	137	9.8	1	—	—	—	0.51
3	vsOhio	W44-14	-11.7	14	91	6.5	1	—	—	—	0.22
4	@Akron	W48-17	-9.4	18	103	5.7	1	1	10	0	0.41
6	@Old Dominion	W56-14	-12.7	20	198	9.9	3	—	—	—	1.00
7	vsMiddle Tennessee	W49-24	-8.7	19	134	7.1	3	—	—	—	0.54
8	@Florida International	W45-13	-16.2	9	117	13.0	0	3	79	2	0.97
9	vsFlorida Atlantic	W35-16	-10.4	24	272	11.3	4	—	—	—	0.57
12	vsRice	W41-14	-3.1	27	199	7.4	1	—	—	—	0.45
13	@UAB	W23-18	-4.2	20	171	8.6	0	1	23	0	0.40
14	vsWestern Kentucky	L66-67	-2.6	3	29	9.7	0	—	—	—	0.79
15	vsLouisiana Tech	W26-23	-1.7	4	34	8.5	0	—	—	—	0.90
1	vsNorthern Illinois	W52-23	-0.6	15	131	8.7	1	—	—	—	0.36

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

21.4%

Passing plays

1.5%

Rushing plays

40.5%

Standard downs

24.2%

Passing downs

14.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.57
Passing downs: 0.46
Pass / Rush EPA: 1.55 / 0.51

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.