#1Talik Keaton

WR·Marshall·2023

Talik Keaton is a Slot Specialist WR for Marshall.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Talik Keaton's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Receiving

14 Receptions143 Rec yards0 Rec TD10.2 Yards/rec

Returns

1 Kick returns8 KR yards0 KR TD4 Punt returns12 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs WR peers

Efficiency60
Volume11
Explosiveness21
Consistency53
Pass-Down93

Player type

Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)60th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency53th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.35 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.59 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Arkansas State (SP+ -6).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Tyler Buchner	Notre Dame	2021	51	0.250	0.3	12.8
Brandon Chatman	Navy	2025	52	0.230	0.6	12.0
Keytaon Thompson	Virginia	2020	39	0.320	0.4	12.5
Samajie Grant	Arizona	2016	62	0.250	0.3	15.5
Nick Nash	San José State	2021	45	0.310	0.5	14.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsUAlbany	W21-17	—	1	6	6.0	0	6	0.29
2	@East Carolina	W31-13	-12.8	2	29	14.5	0	20	1.07
4	vsVirginia Tech	W24-17	5.8	—	—	—	—	—	—
6	@NC State	L41-48	7.4	—	—	—	—	—	-0.58
8	vsJames Madison	L9-20	11.8	1	6	6.0	0	6	—
9	@Coastal Carolina	L6-34	-1.2	3	18	6.0	0	7	0.01
10	@App State	L9-31	3.8	2	25	12.5	0	21	1.00
11	vsGeorgia Southern	W38-33	-5.2	1	15	15.0	0	15	-0.17
13	vsArkansas State	W35-21	-6.3	2	34	17.0	0	25	1.59
20	vsUTSA	L17-35	5.4	2	10	5.0	0	7	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

4.0%

Passing plays

7.5%

Rushing plays

0.4%

Standard downs

2.8%

Passing downs

6.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.12
Passing downs: 0.38
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.27 / -0.20

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).