#3Nick Nash
Nick Nash is a 2-year Slot Specialist WR for San José State. Nick's 2021 season ranks in the 58th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 159 plays — a average rate for the WR.
What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.47Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.09Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.45Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Nick Nash's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
2021 Production
Performance Analysis · 2021 · vs WR peers
- Efficiency58
- Volume80
- Explosiveness13
- Consistency15
- Pass-Down83
The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.
- ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used WRs by play share.
- ▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.11 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 0.98 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs New Mexico State (SP+ -24).
NIL Market Tier· 2021
On3 valuation ↗Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.20
- Passing downs
- 0.39
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.25 / 0.41
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.