#13Jerrod Heard

WR·Texas·20151.6 pts line value1st Round

Jerrod Heard is a Possession Receiver WR for Texas. Jerrod's 2015 season ranks in the 63th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 292 plays — a average rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jerrod Heard's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Passing

92/159 Comp/Att1214 Pass yards5 Pass TD5 INT57.9% Comp %

Rushing

556 Rush yards3 Rush TD139 Carries4.0 Yards/carry

Receiving

1 Receptions3 Rec yards0 Rec TD3.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs WR peers

Efficiency63
Volume100
Explosiveness0
Consistency20
Pass-Down89

Player type

Possession Receiver WR

Chain-mover who earns targets through reliability. High volume, short-to-intermediate routes, consistent floor every week.

High target shareChain moverReliable floor

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)63th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency20th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used WRs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.30 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.80 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Rice (SP+ -15).

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Zach Abey	Navy	2017	275	0.370	2.9	101.8
D.J. Foster	Arizona State	2014	174	0.200	1.0	34.8
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2019	153	0.210	1.9	32.1
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2018	144	0.360	2.3	51.8
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2017	161	0.150	0.0	24.2

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	@Notre Dame	L3-38	22.4	—	—	—	—	—	0.38
2	vsRice	W42-28	-14.6	—	—	—	—	—	0.80
3	vsCalifornia	L44-45	12.1	—	—	—	—	—	0.52
4	vsOklahoma State	L27-30	9.9	—	—	—	—	—	-0.10
5	@TCU	L7-50	19.0	—	—	—	—	—	-0.17
6	vsOklahoma	W24-17	22.7	—	—	—	—	—	0.25
8	vsKansas State	W23-9	2.6	—	—	—	—	—	0.09
9	@Iowa State	L0-24	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	-0.37
10	vsKansas	W59-20	-21.3	—	—	—	—	—	0.41
11	@West Virginia	L20-38	12.9	—	—	—	—	—	0.06
13	vsTexas Tech	L45-48	4.5	1	3	3.0	0	3	0.15
14	@Baylor	W23-17	19.5	—	—	—	—	—	-0.44

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

37.8%

Passing plays

66.2%

Rushing plays

22.7%

Standard downs

30.7%

Passing downs

50.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.07
Passing downs: 0.30
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.11 / 0.30

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.