#9Zach Abey

WR·Navy·2018 2017 20162.9 pts line value1st Round

Zach Abey is a 3-year Red Zone Weapon WR for Navy. Zach's 2017 season ranks in the 50th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 312 plays — a average rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Zach Abey's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Passing

31/72 Comp/Att805 Pass yards7 Pass TD7 INT43.1% Comp %

Rushing

1413 Rush yards19 Rush TD293 Carries4.8 Yards/carry

Receiving

1 Receptions5 Rec yards1 Rec TD5.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs WR peers

Efficiency50
Volume100
Explosiveness0
Consistency64
Pass-Down58

Player type

Red Zone Weapon WR

Goes from good to great inside the 20 — high TD conversion on limited looks makes this receiver a scoring machine.

Red zone targetHigh TD rateSize/catch radius advantage

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)50th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency64th %ile · average

Career trajectory:→ Stable

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used WRs by play share.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.17 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.75 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Virginia (SP+ 1).

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2018	144	0.360	2.3	51.8
D.J. Foster	Arizona State	2014	174	0.200	1.0	34.8
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2019	153	0.210	1.9	32.1
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2020	128	0.310	1.0	39.7
Lynn Bowden Jr.	Kentucky	2019	176	0.520	6.3	91.5

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	@Florida Atlantic	W42-19	5.1	—	—	—	—	—	0.46
2	vsTulane	W23-21	-5.7	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	vsCincinnati	W42-32	-6.4	—	—	—	—	—	0.42
5	@Tulsa	W31-21	-10.7	—	—	—	—	—	0.39
6	vsAir Force	W48-45	-11.0	—	—	—	—	—	0.49
7	@Memphis	L27-30	7.8	—	—	—	—	—	0.03
8	vsUCF	L21-31	14.1	—	—	—	—	—	0.46
10	@Temple	L26-34	0.5	1	5	5.0	1	5	0.33
12	@Notre Dame	L17-24	20.8	—	—	—	—	—	0.12
13	@Houston	L14-24	7.7	—	—	—	—	—	-0.43
15	vsArmy	L13-14	-5.3	—	—	—	—	—	-0.10
1	vsVirginia	W49-7	0.8	—	—	—	—	—	0.75

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

40.9%

Passing plays

68.4%

Rushing plays

37.6%

Standard downs

41.1%

Passing downs

40.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.30
Passing downs: 0.34
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.42 / 0.28

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2018 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	Navy	0.8	0.370	—	25.9
2017	Navy	2.9	0.370	—	101.8
2018	Navy	2.1	0.370	—	46.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.