#5Shai Werts

WR·Georgia Southern·2020 2019 2018 20171.9 pts line value1st Round

Shai Werts is a 4-year Workhorse Receiver WR for Georgia Southern. Shai's 2019 season ranks in the 60th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 295 plays — a average rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Shai Werts's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Passing

67/127 Comp/Att799 Pass yards9 Pass TD1 INT52.8% Comp %

Rushing

731 Rush yards5 Rush TD171 Carries4.3 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs WR peers

Efficiency60
Volume100
Explosiveness18
Consistency35
Pass-Down100

Player type

Workhorse Receiver WR

The primary target in the offense — used across all situations and down-types at an elite volume.

Top target shareAll-down utilityOffense runs through this player

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)60th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency35th %ile · below avg

Career trajectory:→ Stable

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used WRs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.14 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.41 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs UL Monroe (SP+ -11).

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Zach Abey	Navy	2017	275	0.370	2.9	101.8
D.J. Foster	Arizona State	2014	174	0.200	1.0	34.8
Jerrod Heard	Texas	2015	116	0.290	1.6	33.6
Zach Abey	Navy	2018	126	0.370	2.1	46.6
De'Michael Harris	Southern Miss	2019	117	0.130	0.7	15.2

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · EPA per play, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	EPA/play	Pass	Rush
1	@LSU	L3-55	33.1	-0.15	0.33	-0.53
5	vsLouisiana	L24-37	9.6	0.29	-0.08	0.55
6	@South Alabama	W20-17	-20.3	-0.13	-0.19	-0.07
8	vsCoastal Carolina	W30-27	-12.8	0.27	0.29	0.26
9	vsNew Mexico State	W41-7	-22.0	-0.06	-0.92	0.36
10	@App State	W24-21	11.3	-0.11	-0.30	-0.05
11	@Troy	L28-49	-4.4	0.12	0.13	0.09
12	vsUL Monroe	W51-29	-10.7	0.41	0.39	0.41
13	@Arkansas State	L33-38	-2.9	0.34	0.15	0.78
14	vsGeorgia State	W38-10	-10.5	0.11	0.20	0.05
1	vsLiberty	L16-23	-2.6	-0.07	-0.08	-0.06

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

40.6%

Passing plays

93.8%

Rushing plays

26.3%

Standard downs

35.5%

Passing downs

51.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: -0.02
Passing downs: 0.33
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.06 / 0.19

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 — 2020 · 45 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2017	Georgia Southern	0.0	0.150	—	24.2
2018	Georgia Southern	2.3	0.360	+0.21	51.8
2019	Georgia Southern	1.9	0.210	-0.15	32.1
2020	Georgia Southern	1.0	0.310	+0.10	39.7

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.