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Georgia Southern

Georgia Southern Eagles

Sun Belt·1-0·
Compare
Elo
1376#97
SP+
-5.8#86
FPI
-8.0
AP
NR
Next@ Clemson · Wk 2Win prob 8%Model +22.3
Talent #78 (634.2)Recruiting class #896% production returning

Team Leaders

Latest on Georgia Southern

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Georgia Southern's front is the wrong test for Clemson

Matchup · 5d ago

Max Johnson produced 8 of Georgia Southern's 15 explosive plays

Matchup · 6d ago

Roster · 122 players

FR 22SO 28JR 26SR 46
#PlayerPosClHtWt
7Max JohnsonQBSR6'5"220
9Weston BryanQBSO6'3"245
10Charlie JohnstonQBSO6'6"215
11Harrison Faulkner Jr.QBFR6'0"190
14Turner HeltonQBSR6'2"175
17Trey TownsendQBJR6'1"215
5Terrance GibbsRBSR6'0"210
6David MbadingaRBSR5'7"190
16Jamarian SamuelRBSR5'9"205
20Ty CummingsRBFR5'8"185
27Tyrese WoodgettRBSO5'10"190
29Bre'Lan MareusRBSO5'9"200
33Bryce BakerRBJR5'11"205
35Taeo ToddRBJR5'8"195
37Foster OrrisRBSO5'9"195
2Ashton HollinsWRSR6'5"200
12Cam KingWRJR6'0"200
13King PhillipsWRJR6'1"190
15Taylor BradshawWRSR6'0"185
18Andre Greene Jr.WRSR6'2"205
19Josh DallasWRSR6'1"210
21Zay HilliardWRFR6'3"210
22Jarvis MathurinWRFR5'7"165
24Peyton PlottWRSO5'7"160
26Antavious MurphyWRJR5'9"190
38Kevin DouglasWRSR5'8"175
40Brandon PaulWRSO5'9"165
42CJ DockeryWRFR6'1"210
81Jeremiah WareWRSO5'10"190
85Kam MikellWRJR6'2"195
88Alex TaylorWRJR6'2"200
89Noble JohnsonWRSR6'3"210
48Aubrey HeathTESO6'1"210
80JQ CrosbyTEFR6'3"220
82Jackson LongTESR6'4"230
83Jack BerquistTEFR6'3"220
84JP MikhaelTESR6'3"235
86Henry GregoryTESO6'7"230
87River HelmsTESR6'4"230
50Jaylen SlaughterOLJR6'3"260
51Matthew WilliamsOLSR6'3"315
53Ty FurnishOLSR6'3"295
55Ethan WilliamsOLSR6'2"295
56Mo Clipper Jr.OLSR6'4"320
62Liam ThompsonOLFR6'4"280
63Colin AlexanderOLJR6'4"305
64Caelan WilliamsOLSR6'7"305
65Cole NorredOLSO6'3"290
66Jayvon PerryOLFR6'3"285
67Joshua FordOLSO6'2"305
68Jace MoldenOLSO6'1"285
70Jalen BurgessOLJR6'1"290
71Jaden JohnsonOLFR6'5"260
72Josh RaymondOLJR6'4"295
73Zach PearsonOLJR6'5"275
74Grady HowellOLFR6'5"285
75Kingtriton SamuelaOLJR6'2"300
76Brandon StonerOLSO6'3"325
50Caleb EllisDLSO6'1"270
55Korey JordanDLJR6'3"290
57Latrell BullardDLSR6'1"350
90O'Marion BrownDLSR6'2"290
92Marcus DownsDLJR6'5"285
93Caleb MooreDLJR6'2"300
94Elijah FearsDLSO6'2"305
95Kwon McGinneyDLSR6'2"310
96Stephone RossDLFR6'4"280
99Jeremiah TicketDLSO6'3"260
1Brandon TysonLBSR6'1"220
4Anthony BynumLBSR6'3"255
5Diego AvilesLBSR6'1"230
9Festus DaviesLBSR6'2"235
10Jacob HammondsLBSR6'2"195
11Kebba SeckaLBSR6'3"260
14Rashon Myles Jr.LBSR6'1"225
15Holden TriceLBSR5'10"210
16AJ Brown Sr.LBSR6'1"200
18MJ StroudLBSR6'2"245
30CJ Allen Jr.LBJR5'10"220
34JaMari WhiteheadLBSR6'2"235
35Caleb ButlerLBSO6'1"235
41Brandon AlfordLBSR5'11"205
42Braxtin McLesterLBSO6'3"220
43Ethan JohnsonLBSO6'3"220
44Nigel Eldridge Jr.LBSO6'2"260
45Colton VeltkampLBSO6'1"220
47Xavier BrownLBFR6'1"230
48Amari WilsonLBSO6'1"245
52Kru CaseyLBFR6'0"225
59Alec UpshawLBFR6'3"235
91DA LoganLBFR6'3"225
97Eli AndersLBJR6'3"260
98Uche IlohLBJR6'5"265
2Aaron SearsDBSR5'10"180
6Jakyri JonesDBSR5'10"195
12Tracy Hill Jr.DBSR6'2"195
13Aidan McCowanDBSR5'11"170
17Jayden JacksonDBFR6'0"180
19Fabo ChaneyDBSO6'1"180
20Jaquari BrownDBJR6'1"170
21Carlo ThompsonDBSR6'0"180
22Chace CalicutDBFR6'3"195
23Gregory Delaine Jr.DBSR6'0"180
24Phillip GladneyDBJR5'11"175
26Dariyon GordonDBFR6'1"170
27RJ IsaacDBFR5'10"170
28Tylin DrakefordDBFR5'10"175
29Devin CollierDBJR5'10"180
31Chance GambleDBSR6'2"185
32Jaylen BentleyDBJR6'0"175
36Jadaan CooperDBJR5'10"170
37Max HaertelDBFR5'11"200
38Noah ManghamDBSR5'11"195
39Temirez Williams Jr.DBJR5'8"180
95Tripp BryantPKSO5'9"180
97Blake FordPKSR6'1"215
98TJ Hartley IIIPKSR5'11"175
99Donal DempseyPKSO6'0"195
25Alex SmithPSR6'6"230
41Chason GlennLSSO6'2"235
46Gavin KurpisLSSO5'10"210
93Gaines WoodLSSR5'11"205

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
31.0
scoring offense
Points allowed
0.0
scoring defense
Differential
+31.0
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
513.0#27
Yards / play
6.7#46
Passing yards / game
351.0#9
Rushing yards / game
162.0#68
First downs / game
26.0#26
3rd down %
38.5%#88
4th down %
50.0%#67
Time of possession
35:56#11
Defense
Yards allowed / game
117.0#2
Yards / play allowed
1.9#1
Pass yards allowed / game
109.0#14
Rush yards allowed / game
8.0#2
3rd down % allowed
27.8%#41
Sacks
6#12
Tackles for loss
13#29
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
+1#36
Takeaways
2#53
Giveaways
1#31
Penalties / game
6.0#52
Penalty yards / game
65.0#98

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

heavily pass-leaning

Georgia Southern throws it: Clay Helton's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 11 seasons. The way in is 137th at defending the run, and they are 137th at closing out passing downs.

On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −29.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.

Georgia Southern has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.

Projected soft spots

  • Defenserunning it
    #137
    projected
  • Defensesurviving second and twelve
    #137
    projected
  • Defensethe push the line gets
    #137
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 11 to play
4.9 – 7.1
projected final record (now 1–0)
Exp. wins left
3.9
of 11 games
Bowl odds
33%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
59%
vs App State
Toughest
8%
vs Clemson

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 11 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

123456789101112
final winstallest bar = 26% chance
Likeliest finish 5-7 (26%)Bowl eligible 33% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
QBMax Johnson, Weston Bryan
+16.8 EPA
RBJamarian Samuel, David Mbadinga +2
+9.8 EPA
WRJosh Dallas, Ashton Hollins
+5.7 EPA
TERiver Helms
+4.6 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBMax Johnson
~$766K
EPA +14.20.383/play37 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.3673rd#38
Def-0.3198th#4
Explosiveness
Off1.2853rd#65
Def1.1174th#36
Field position
Off73.477th#32
Def72.354th#64
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off3.0023rd#106
Def0.0099th#2
Turnovers
Won 2Lost 1
Margin +1

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
0.4566th#47
Off · rush
0.2162nd#53

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.2162nd#53
Def-0.3494th#9
Passing
Off0.4565th#49
Def-0.3898th#4

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
4.40#6
2nd-level / open-field
1.85 / 1.35
Power / stuff (off)
66.7% / 0.0%
Havoc — total (def)
33.3%#2
Havoc — front 7 / DB
22.2% / 11.1%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off0.23
Def-0.15
Pass downs
Off0.72
Def-0.51

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense0.04#800.72#120.97#20
Defense-0.31#20-0.43#8-0.44#6

Elo Trajectory

Charleston SouthernFinal
Elo rating 1376 → 1376+0 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 31 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.2753rd
  • Defense EPA/play allowed-0.3298th
  • Offense success rate46%53rd
  • Defense success rate allowed17%96th

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs49%48th
  • Offense success — passing downs39%66th
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs19%96th
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs16%85th

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.367th
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.424th
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.051st
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.268th

Trenches

  • Offense line yards3.472nd
  • Defense line yards allowed0.7199th
  • Offense highlight yards1.053rd
  • Defense highlight yards allowed0.0099th
  • Offense power success0.5022nd
  • Defense power success allowed1.023rd
  • Offense stuff rate0.1274th
  • Defense stuff rate0.3592nd

Third down

  • Third down conversion40%42nd
  • Third down distance faced6.655th
  • Third down conversion allowed29%68th
  • Third down distance forced9.388th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half0.4293rd
  • Net success rate — second half0.1462nd

Roster

  • Returning usage21%22nd
  • Returning EPA19.47th
  • Team talent composite63444th
  • Recruiting class rank89.036th
  • Recruiting class points18236th

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

Pass-dominant offense performing above the national average
EPA/play
+0.363#38 · above avg
Pass EPA/play
+0.449#49
Rush EPA/play
+0.213#53
Explosiveness
1.280#65
Pts/opportunity
3.00#106
Success rate
52.7%

Pass efficiency edge: 0.236 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

High-pressure defense — top 3 nationally in EPA/play allowed
EPA/play allowed
-0.315#4 · elite
Havoc rate (total)
33.3%#2
Front-7 havoc
22.2%
DB havoc
11.1%
Big play rate allowed
1.113#36
Success rate allowed
15.6%

Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.

📊

Season Signature

31.0 PPG offense, 0.0 allowed — +31.0 margin/game
Points per game
31.0
Points allowed/game
0.0
Scoring margin/game
+31.0
Turnover margin
+1won 2 · lost 1
Production returning
6%
Talent rank (247)
#78

1-0 record through 1 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE73thEXPLOSIVENESS53thFINISHING23thFIELD POS77thDEFENSE98thHAVOC99th50th100th
Offense
73th
Explosiveness
53th
Finishing
23th
Field Pos
77th
Defense
98th
Havoc
99th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
-8.4
#103
Offense
-1.8
#80
Defense
+6.7
#125
Full CORE ratings →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Georgia Southern is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Georgia Southern in 2026

by EPA/play distance
IowaSP+ +18.0
Off EPA/play +0.332Def EPA/play -0.330Elo 1847
Match
98%
Air ForceSP+ +1.1
Off EPA/play +0.371Def EPA/play -0.215Elo 1424
Match
95%
Kansas StateSP+ +12.7
Off EPA/play +0.314Def EPA/play -0.219Elo 1616
Match
94%
North Dakota StateSP+ +2.6
Off EPA/play +0.296Def EPA/play -0.404Elo 1562
Match
94%
Kennesaw StateSP+ -7.4
Off EPA/play +0.486Def EPA/play -0.253Elo 1373
Match
93%
Notre DameSP+ +26.8
Off EPA/play +0.464Def EPA/play -0.225Elo 2021
Match
93%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: +7.3, #45 of 1282016: -15.8, #110 of 1282017: -16.7, #110 of 1302018: +0.1, #63 of 1302019: -1.3, #67 of 1302020: +9.7, #30 of 1242021: -13.2, #102 of 1302022: -8.3, #95 of 1312023: -9.5, #97 of 1332024: -8.0, #93 of 1342025: -14.7, #105 of 1362026: -8.4, #103 of 138
20152026
Now -8.4 · #103 of 138Best +9.7 in 2020Worst -16.7 in 2017

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20261-00-0
100%
1.0+0.0
20257-64-4
54%
6.2+0.8
20248-56-2
62%
5.7+2.3
20236-73-5
46%
4.9+1.1
20226-73-5
46%
4.3+1.7
20213-92-6
25%
4.6-1.6
20208-54-4
62%
10.0-2.0
20197-65-3
54%
6.0+1.0
201810-36-2
77%
8.4+1.6
20172-102-6
17%
3.2-1.2

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

0.7%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

0-0 so far, projected to finish 6.1-6.0. Wins the Sun Belt in 6.2%.

If they finish with…

85%
0 losses
25%
1 loss
1.2%
2 losses
0%
3 losses
0%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 0.

Win out and it is 85%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.

up 0.3 points since preseason.

  • At 1 loss they are 25% where the average Sun Belt team is 20%.
  • The Sun Belt takes 0.14 bids in an average season.
  • One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.7% of seasons, having won their league in 91% of those.

Georgia Southern’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk2at Clemson3.9
  • wk4vs Houston3.4
  • wk6vs James Madison2.1
  • wk7at Old Dominion1.8
  • wk12at Troy1.5
  • wk13vs Louisiana Tech1.3

Who to root for

Games Georgia Southern is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk5Buffalo over Western Michigan0.3
  • wk12Charlotte over Tulsa0.3
  • wk5Charlotte over Memphis0.3
  • wk4Bowling Green over South Florida0.3
  • wk8UL Monroe over Troy0.3
  • wk7Auburn over Georgia0.3
The full playoff picture →

Sun Belt

East division · 0-0 in league play, projected 4.1-3.96 of 14 by title odds
6.2%
Wins the Sun Belt
11%
Reaches the title game

The Sun Belt keeps divisions (East and West) and sends the winner of each — so Georgia Southern can finish with the league’s second-best record and still stay home. The last berth is level on percentage in 47% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk6James Madison at Georgia Southern15.7
  • wk7Georgia Southern at Old Dominion13.1
  • wk2Georgia Southern at Clemson9.4
  • wk5Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina9.3

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Sun Belt race →

If not the playoff, then

59%
Bowl eligible
58%
Placed in a bowl
0.7%
In the playoff
42%
Season over in November

Georgia Southern is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.

  • New Orleans Bowl8.4%
  • Frisco Bowl7.5%
  • Myrtle Beach Bowl7.2%
  • Salute to Veterans Bowl6.9%
  • Boca Raton Bowl6.2%
  • Cure Bowl6.0%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.