Zach Abey is a 3-year Workhorse Receiver WR for Navy. Zach's 2016 season ranks in the 60th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 93 plays — a average rate for the WR.
What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.47Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.09Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.45Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Zach Abey's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
2016 Production
Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs WR peers
- Efficiency60
- Volume100
- Explosiveness40
- Consistency54
- Pass-Down63
The primary target in the offense — used across all situations and down-types at an elite volume.
- ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used WRs by play share.
- ▸Peak game: 1.03 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs SMU (SP+ -11).
Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · EPA per play, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.15
- Passing downs
- 0.23
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.14 / 0.20
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.