#9Jafar Armstrong

WR·Notre Dame·20181.0 pts line value1st Round

Jafar Armstrong is a Versatile WR for Notre Dame. Jafar's 2018 season ranks in the 33th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 85 plays — a developing rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jafar Armstrong's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Rushing

383 Rush yards7 Rush TD72 Carries5.3 Yards/carry

Receiving

14 Receptions159 Rec yards0 Rec TD11.4 Yards/rec

Returns

1 Kick returns20 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs WR peers

Efficiency33
Volume34
Explosiveness29
Consistency57
Pass-Down76

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)33th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency57th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs WR peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.24 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.13 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Wake Forest (SP+ 4).

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Chris Tyree	Notre Dame	2020	76	0.310	0.6	23.6
Eli Heidenreich	Navy	2024	66	0.340	0.7	22.4
Shane Tucker	Middle Tennessee	2014	97	0.320	1.6	31.0
Noah Short	Army	2024	69	0.300	0.5	20.7
Luke McCaffrey	Nebraska	2020	62	0.300	0.7	18.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsMichigan	W24-17	22.0	2	11	5.5	0	9	-0.07
2	vsBall State	W24-16	-18.9	3	61	20.3	0	27	0.22
3	vsVanderbilt	W22-17	7.6	—	—	—	—	—	0.18
4	@Wake Forest	W56-27	3.6	2	15	7.5	0	8	1.13
9	vsNavy	W44-22	-10.2	5	64	12.8	0	27	0.58
10	@Northwestern	W31-21	1.9	—	—	—	—	—	-0.04
11	vsFlorida State	W42-13	1.4	—	—	—	—	—	0.42
12	vsSyracuse	W36-3	7.5	—	—	—	—	—	0.72
13	@USC	W24-17	9.7	—	—	—	—	—	-0.38
1	vsClemson	L3-30	29.7	2	8	4.0	0	4	0.10

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

11.9%

Passing plays

4.8%

Rushing plays

18.3%

Standard downs

13.9%

Passing downs

7.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.43
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.63 / 0.24

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 · 10 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.