#10Luke McCaffrey

WR·Nebraska·20200.7 pts line value1st Round

Luke McCaffrey is a Possession Receiver WR for Nebraska. Luke's 2020 season ranks in the 33th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 122 plays — a developing rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Luke McCaffrey's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Passing

46/74 Comp/Att438 Pass yards1 Pass TD6 INT62.2% Comp %

Rushing

357 Rush yards3 Rush TD62 Carries5.8 Yards/carry

Receiving

1 Receptions5 Rec yards0 Rec TD5.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs WR peers

Efficiency33
Volume84
Explosiveness0
Consistency0
Pass-Down80

Player type

Possession Receiver WR

Chain-mover who earns targets through reliability. High volume, short-to-intermediate routes, consistent floor every week.

High target shareChain moverReliable floor

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)33th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs WR peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used WRs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2020	128	0.310	1.0	39.7
Jerrod Heard	Texas	2015	116	0.290	1.6	33.6
Shane Tucker	Middle Tennessee	2014	97	0.320	1.6	31.0
Jafar Armstrong	Notre Dame	2018	79	0.320	1.0	25.3
Chris Tyree	Notre Dame	2020	76	0.310	0.6	23.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
8	@Ohio State	L17-52	28.4	1	5	5.0	0	5	-0.05
10	@Northwestern	L13-21	9.0	—	—	—	—	—	-0.15
11	vsPenn State	W30-23	13.9	—	—	—	—	—	0.34
12	vsIllinois	L23-41	-5.4	—	—	—	—	—	0.20
13	@Iowa	L20-26	16.3	—	—	—	—	—	0.24
14	@Purdue	W37-27	5.9	—	—	—	—	—	0.04
15	vsMinnesota	L17-24	4.7	—	—	—	—	—	-0.31

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

29.3%

Passing plays

37.3%

Rushing plays

22.8%

Standard downs

26.1%

Passing downs

37.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.13
Passing downs: 0.32
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.10 / 0.32

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 · 7 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.