#1Shane Tucker

WR·Middle Tennessee·2015 20141.6 pts line value1st Round

Shane Tucker is a 2-year Versatile WR for Middle Tennessee. Shane's 2014 season ranks in the 71th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 122 plays — a average rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Shane Tucker's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Rushing

486 Rush yards8 Rush TD97 Carries5.0 Yards/carry

Receiving

25 Receptions351 Rec yards4 Rec TD14.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs WR peers

Efficiency71
Volume44
Explosiveness47
Consistency68
Pass-Down100

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)71th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency68th %ile · average

Key findings

▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.44 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.32 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Savannah State.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jerrod Heard	Texas	2015	116	0.290	1.6	33.6
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2020	128	0.310	1.0	39.7
Zach Abey	Navy	2018	126	0.370	2.1	46.6
James Graham	Georgia Tech	2019	91	0.280	1.7	25.5
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2018	144	0.360	2.3	51.8

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsSavannah State	W61-7	—	2	11	5.5	1	6	1.32
2	@Minnesota	L24-35	6.8	2	24	12.0	0	12	0.48
3	vsWestern Kentucky	W50-47	-2.6	1	52	52.0	0	52	0.39
4	@Memphis	L17-36	5.6	3	42	14.0	0	26	0.63
5	@Old Dominion	W41-28	-12.7	1	27	27.0	1	27	-0.26
6	vsSouthern Miss	W37-31	-15.9	6	78	13.0	0	18	1.17
7	@Marshall	L24-49	16.8	3	29	9.7	1	16	0.22
8	vsUAB	W34-22	-4.2	1	6	6.0	0	6	0.02
10	vsBYU	L7-27	10.2	2	14	7.0	0	16	0.07
12	@Florida International	L28-38	-16.2	1	28	28.0	1	28	0.16
13	vsFlorida Atlantic	W35-34	-10.4	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	@UTEP	L21-24	-12.0	3	40	13.3	0	19	0.45

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

15.5%

Passing plays

10.1%

Rushing plays

19.6%

Standard downs

16.8%

Passing downs

11.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.27
Passing downs: 0.83
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.76 / 0.25

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 — 2015 · 21 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2014	Middle Tennessee	1.6	0.320	—	31.0
2015	Middle Tennessee	0.0	0.040	-0.28	4.5

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.