@ UAB · Wk 4Win prob 33%Model +6.8Schedule & Results
Team Leaders
Braxton WoodsonPassing21 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT- Braxton WoodsonRushing200 yds · 3 TD · 8.7 avg
Michael BarrowReceiving2 rec · 11 yds · 0 TD
MarcAnthony ParkerTackles9 tackles · 0 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Navy
All news →Florida Atlantic still can't hold up against the run
Navy routs Towson, 42-15
The number-crunchers keep low-balling Army, Navy and Air Force — about 1.65 points a game, every year
Roster · 197 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brady Carmical | QB | FR | 6'2" | 215 | Ashburn, VA |
| 3 | Maverick Chance | QB | FR | 6'0" | 215 | Brentwood, TN |
| 4 | Jett Taylor | QB | FR | 6'1" | 195 | Grand Saline, TX |
| 5 | Braxton Woodson | QB | SR | 6'3" | 215 | Altamonte Springs, FL |
| 7 | Jason Williams Jr. | QB | FR | 6'2" | 185 | Virginia Beach, VA |
| 8 | Jackson Gutierrez | QB | JR | 6'0" | 207 | San Antonio, TX |
| 10 | Ryan Brass | QB | SO | 6'0" | 210 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 15 | Evan Blouir | QB | FR | 6'0" | 205 | Lusby, MD |
| 16 | Michael Dove | QB | SO | 6'0" | 206 | Winter Garden, FL |
| 24 | Braeden George | RB | SO | 5'11" | 204 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 31 | Jai Hundley | RB | JR | 5'9" | 200 | Knoxville, TN |
| 34 | Jadyn Jones | RB | JR | 5'11" | 200 | Wyomissing, PA |
| 35 | Quinton Ezzard | RB | JR | 6'1" | 210 | Smyrna, GA |
| 40 | Vic Listorti | RB | SR | 5'11" | 205 | Pasadena, MD |
| 41 | Stefan Egbe | RB | SR | 6'0" | 218 | Ellicott City, MD |
| 42 | Christian Cromer | RB | SO | 5'11" | 250 | Brooksville, FL |
| 43 | Jeremiah Wingfield | RB | FR | 5'9" | 205 | Athens, GA |
| 44 | Aydin Woolfolk | RB | JR | 5'8" | 215 | Fredericksburg, VA |
| 45 | Chris Daley II | RB | FR | 5'10" | 215 | Denver, NC |
| 46 | Julian Turney | RB | FR | 6'0" | 230 | Mays Landing, NJ |
| 47 | Tyler Wall | RB | FR | 6'0" | 215 | Dallas, TX |
| 49 | Jacob Williams | RB | FR | 5'10" | 210 | Washougal, WA |
| 0 | Noah Bull | WR | SR | 6'0" | 210 | Baltimore, MD |
| 1 | Braeden Stuart | WR | FR | 6'0" | 195 | Moon Township, PA |
| 2 | Tre Jones III | WR | JR | 6'2" | 195 | Plainfield, IL |
| 3 | Truman Brasfield | WR | FR | 6'1" | 197 | Corvallis, OR |
| 4 | JP Donovan | WR | FR | 6'0" | 205 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 6 | Bash Bodily | WR | FR | 6'5" | 205 | Park City, UT |
| 9 | Cayden Alula | WR | FR | 6'0" | 197 | Jupiter, FL |
| 13 | Akeem Clark | WR | SO | 6'2" | 200 | District Heights, MD |
| 14 | Maddax Fayard | WR | SO | 5'10" | 187 | Destin, FL |
| 17 | Gus Anderson | WR | FR | 5'11" | 190 | Newnan, GA |
| 18 | Andersen Cardoza | WR | JR | 5'10" | 203 | Fayetteville, GA |
| 20 | Prosper Akanna | WR | JR | 5'11" | 195 | Sachse, TX |
| 21 | Santino Sanchez | WR | SO | 5'8" | 185 | Pikesville, MD |
| 22 | Jeremiah Chalmers | WR | SO | 5'11" | 187 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 23 | Charles Robinson | WR | JR | 6'0" | 191 | Knoxville, TN |
| 25 | Isaiah Bryant | WR | SR | 5'9" | 165 | Mount Dora, FL |
| 26 | Michael Barrow | WR | JR | 5'7" | 190 | Grand Prairie, TX |
| 28 | Tyler Breedlove | WR | FR | 6'1" | 173 | Loganville, GA |
| 29 | Gage Leonard | WR | SR | 5'9" | 176 | Chatsworth, GA |
| 32 | James Cusick II | WR | FR | 6'0" | 187 | Union, KY |
| 33 | Landon Walker | WR | SO | 5'11" | 196 | Alpharetta, GA |
| 36 | Andre Gilbert Jr. | WR | JR | 5'7" | 160 | Tampa, FL |
| 37 | Ihsaan Alozie | WR | FR | 5'9" | 183 | Clifton Park, NY |
| 38 | Armoni Spurlock | WR | FR | 6'0" | 208 | Edgewater, FL |
| 80 | Arnel Heathington | WR | SR | 6'1" | 193 | Waldorf, MD |
| 81 | Casey Smith | WR | SR | 6'4" | 204 | Annapolis, MD |
| 83 | Landon Dolhancyk | WR | SO | 6'4" | 183 | Peachtree City, GA |
| 86 | Joshua Guerin | WR | SR | 6'1" | 180 | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 89 | Luke Hutchison | WR | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Round Rock, TX |
| 11 | Nick Spears | TE | FR | 6'3" | 225 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 43 | Gavin Noe | TE | SR | 6'1" | 227 | Norris, TN |
| 82 | Drew Hall | TE | JR | 6'4" | 230 | Pembroke, MA |
| 84 | Jordan Collins | TE | SO | 6'3" | 236 | Rock Hill, SC |
| 85 | Jake Norris | TE | SR | 6'3" | 230 | Madison, MS |
| 87 | Theo Elwell | TE | JR | 6'5" | 241 | Peachtree City, GA |
| 88 | Merrick Barlow | TE | SO | 6'6" | 239 | Newbury, MA |
| 70 | Jake Polito | OL | JR | 6'3" | 295 | Somers, NY |
| 50 | Joe Alnwick | OT | FR | 6'4" | 280 | Copake, NY |
| 56 | Garison Millsaps | OT | FR | 6'5" | 270 | Hickory, NC |
| 58 | Peter Bonnet | OT | FR | 6'5" | 295 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 61 | Drew Fontana | OT | JR | 6'4" | 273 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 62 | Karson Young | OT | JR | 6'3" | 296 | Lubbock, TX |
| 65 | Connor Heater | OT | JR | 6'3" | 275 | Brookfield, OH |
| 69 | Alex Brewer | OT | FR | 6'4" | 315 | Canton, GA |
| 72 | Mack Taylor | OT | JR | 6'5" | 276 | Queen Creek, AZ |
| 73 | Sean Crowley | OT | JR | 6'4" | 293 | Glen Arm, MD |
| 74 | James Cardinali | OT | SO | 6'6" | 286 | Gibsonia, PA |
| 75 | Hansen Collie | OT | JR | 6'5" | 279 | San Marcos, TX |
| 77 | Malcolm Johnson | OT | SO | 6'6" | 292 | South Jordan, UT |
| 79 | Logan Wegman | OT | SO | 6'4" | 282 | Reading, PA |
| 52 | Jackson DeLoach | G | FR | 6'3" | 273 | Suwanee, GA |
| 53 | Jack Heath | G | FR | 6'5" | 285 | Lone Tree, CO |
| 55 | Matt McMahon | G | FR | 6'2" | 275 | Canonsburg, PA |
| 56 | Wyatt Ferguson | G | SO | 6'4" | 295 | Pasadena, MD |
| 57 | John Hebert | G | SO | 6'2" | 275 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 59 | Paul McClune IV | G | SO | 6'4" | 285 | Morgantown, PA |
| 60 | Zarian Simms | G | SR | 6'4" | 299 | Concord, NC |
| 64 | Jace Williams | G | SO | 6'2" | 290 | Elgin, OK |
| 66 | Will Hampton | G | SO | 6'5" | 298 | Petal, MS |
| 67 | Matt Tomaszewski | G | SO | 6'3" | 296 | Clifton Park, NY |
| 68 | Hoke Smith II | G | SR | 6'3" | 317 | Birmingham, AL |
| 71 | Isaac Bunker | G | SR | 6'3" | 298 | Monroe, WI |
| 76 | Peter Vomvolakis | G | FR | 6'0" | 285 | Greenwich, CT |
| 54 | Hunter Fay | C | SO | 6'3" | 265 | Weatherford, TX |
| 59 | Gavin Dauby | C | FR | 6'3" | 285 | Wildwood, MO |
| 63 | Toran Smith | C | JR | 6'2" | 277 | Edmond, OK |
| 69 | Cam Nichols | C | SR | 6'1" | 305 | Charlotte, NC |
| 78 | Ben Reiland | C | SR | 6'2" | 298 | Shakopee, MN |
| 65 | Aiden Lyczek | DE | JR | 6'4" | 268 | Cranberry Township, PA |
| 70 | Christian Smith | DE | FR | 6'4" | 220 | Frisco, TX |
| 71 | Avery Hughes | DE | FR | 6'3" | 235 | Lexington, SC |
| 72 | Elysha Campbell | DE | FR | 6'3" | 220 | Tallahassee, FL |
| 73 | Rhoen Breen | DE | SO | 6'5" | 271 | Cary, NC |
| 75 | Romane Grant | DE | FR | 6'2" | 260 | Biloxi, MS |
| 78 | Jaden Brock | DE | SO | 6'4" | 260 | Suwanee, GA |
| 79 | Bryan Hall | DE | FR | 6'4" | 278 | Wellington, FL |
| 90 | Ikenna Ozurumba | DE | SR | 6'5" | 256 | Acworth, GA |
| 68 | Todd Hammond | DL | FR | 6'2" | 280 | Franklin, TN |
| 69 | Delan Massey-Wright | DL | FR | 6'0" | 294 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 76 | Terrence McCauley | DL | SR | 6'0" | 279 | White Plains, MD |
| 77 | Connor Young | DL | SO | 6'3" | 278 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 94 | Xavyer Arrington | DL | JR | 6'0" | 279 | Vero Beach, FL |
| 99 | Chris Herock | DL | JR | 6'1" | 266 | Cumming, GA |
| 74 | Gabriel George | DT | FR | 6'5" | 260 | Brookfield, CT |
| 79 | Clinton Anyagafu | DT | SO | 6'1" | 255 | Missouri City, TX |
| 92 | Alex McCalop | DT | SR | 6'2" | 289 | Greensboro, NC |
| 95 | Griffen Willis | DT | SR | 6'1" | 280 | Austin, TX |
| 96 | Clancy Orie | DT | SO | 6'3" | 272 | Pittsburgh, PA |
| 97 | Matt Reyes | DT | SR | 6'3" | 284 | Friendswood, TX |
| 98 | Bryce Rothwell | DT | SO | 6'4" | 290 | Mount Pleasant, SC |
| 0 | Mackenzie Ardoin | LB | SO | 6'4" | 230 | Opelousas, LA |
| 1 | Seth English | LB | SR | 6'3" | 199 | Gainesville, FL |
| 14 | Trent Gillis | LB | SO | 6'1" | 200 | Glen Burnie, MD |
| 18 | Will Miller | LB | SO | 6'3" | 207 | Pinehurst, NC |
| 21 | JaSean McLean | LB | SR | 6'2" | 205 | Laurel, MD |
| 22 | E.J. Walker | LB | FR | 6'1" | 220 | Orange, TX |
| 31 | Luke Lawson | LB | SR | 6'2" | 217 | Cranberry Township, PA |
| 32 | Justin Coles | LB | JR | 6'2" | 196 | Sunrise, FL |
| 33 | Allen Anderson | LB | FR | 6'1" | 230 | Annapolis, MD |
| 34 | Maddox Hayles | LB | FR | 6'0" | 212 | Destin, FL |
| 35 | Brandon Ihle | LB | SO | 6'3" | 220 | Apex, NC |
| 36 | Luke Mitchell | LB | FR | 5'11" | 210 | Heath, TX |
| 36 | Kaleb Nelson | LB | FR | 5'11" | 210 | Fredon, NJ |
| 37 | Jaden Holder | LB | FR | 6'2" | 210 | Snellville, GA |
| 38 | Daveon Jones | LB | JR | 6'3" | 234 | Valley Grande, AL |
| 39 | Job Grant | LB | SR | 6'2" | 223 | Kansas City, MO |
| 40 | Mac Barrow II | LB | FR | 5'11" | 213 | Houston, TX |
| 41 | James Deyo | LB | FR | 6'2" | 225 | Lynchburg, VA |
| 42 | Brady O'Connor | LB | SO | 6'2" | 232 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 43 | Matt Karpinsky | LB | JR | 6'1" | 208 | Dayton, OH |
| 44 | Terrez Boothe | LB | FR | 6'1" | 200 | Aberdeen, MD |
| 44 | Kyle Ramos | LB | FR | 5'11" | 215 | Wayne, NJ |
| 45 | Christian Johnson | LB | SO | 6'2" | 225 | Atlanta, GA |
| 46 | Noah Beck | LB | JR | 6'1" | 233 | Cleves, OH |
| 47 | Harry Beacham III | LB | JR | 6'0" | 220 | Baton Rouge, LA |
| 49 | Amahd Clark | LB | SO | 6'3" | 219 | District Heights, MD |
| 50 | Gavin Woods | LB | SR | 6'3" | 232 | Bulverde, TX |
| 51 | Jacob Asbeck | LB | JR | 6'1" | 215 | Chester, OK |
| 52 | Nolan McCamy | LB | SR | 6'2" | 212 | Covington, GA |
| 53 | Marcus Bleazard | LB | SR | 6'0" | 224 | Kennesaw, GA |
| 54 | Teddy Androus | LB | JR | 6'0" | 220 | Annapolis, MD |
| 55 | Bishop Rellah | LB | SO | 6'2" | 227 | Pelham, AL |
| 56 | MarcAnthony Parker | LB | JR | 6'0" | 218 | Fredericksburg, VA |
| 57 | Mason Frey | LB | SO | 6'2" | 243 | Southport, CT |
| 58 | Coleman Cauley | LB | SR | 6'1" | 227 | Macon, GA |
| 59 | Cody Fair | LB | SO | 6'2" | 230 | Massillon, OH |
| 80 | Ian Hall | LB | FR | 6'2" | 210 | Alexandria, VA |
| 81 | Anthony Giorgi | LB | FR | 6'4" | 220 | Washington, PA |
| 82 | Jaden Mangini | LB | SO | 6'2" | 206 | San Diego, CA |
| 83 | Nash Beenen | LB | SO | 6'2" | 202 | Atlantic Beach, FL |
| 84 | Gavin Widener | LB | SO | 6'4" | 224 | Glen Allen, VA |
| 85 | Nick Rose | LB | FR | 6'3" | 217 | Tallahassee, FL |
| 86 | Julian Terry | LB | FR | 6'4" | 225 | Miami, FL |
| 87 | Ronin Simms | LB | FR | 6'3" | 205 | Decatur, GA |
| 88 | Dom Purcell | LB | JR | 5'11" | 207 | Columbus, OH |
| 89 | Xavier Sanchez | LB | FR | 6'1" | 210 | Argyle, TX |
| 3 | Irabonoise Oniha | CB | SR | 6'1" | 183 | Silver Spring, MD |
| 4 | Collin Seals | CB | SO | 6'0" | 175 | Lithonia, GA |
| 6 | Phillip Hamilton | CB | JR | 5'10" | 175 | Burleson, TX |
| 10 | Nick Bell | CB | JR | 5'10" | 182 | Centerton, AR |
| 13 | Cam Robinson | CB | SO | 6'0" | 187 | Atlanta, GA |
| 15 | Xavier Le Jeune | CB | JR | 6'0" | 181 | Midlothian, TX |
| 20 | Caiden Anku | CB | FR | 6'0" | 200 | Antioch, TN |
| 23 | Sean Martin | CB | FR | 5'10" | 195 | Dunnellon, FL |
| 25 | Jaxson Jewell | CB | SO | 6'2" | 180 | Coral Springs, FL |
| 26 | Garrison Edwards | CB | FR | 5'9" | 190 | Pine Mountain, GA |
| 28 | Bryce Allen | CB | SR | 5'11" | 181 | Cumming, GA |
| 29 | Eli Thompson | CB | FR | 5'11" | 185 | Waxahachie, TX |
| 2 | Conner Lessane | S | SR | 6'0" | 198 | Lewisville, NC |
| 5 | Matthew Seliga | S | SR | 5'11" | 190 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 5 | Zyon McKenzie | S | FR | 5'11" | 190 | Kennesaw, GA |
| 7 | Kush'i Abraham | S | SR | 5'9" | 186 | Cincinnati, OH |
| 8 | Aaron Rose | S | JR | 6'2" | 194 | Windsor Mill, MD |
| 9 | Joshua Switzer | S | SR | 5'10" | 188 | Charlotte, NC |
| 11 | Jonah Cali | S | SO | 5'9" | 190 | Montverde, FL |
| 16 | Giuseppe Sessi | S | SR | 5'11" | 204 | San Antonio, TX |
| 17 | Trent Gray | S | SO | 6'2" | 186 | Austin, TX |
| 22 | Maxwell Williams | S | JR | 6'0" | 205 | League City, TX |
| 24 | Carson de Avila | S | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Newport Beach, CA |
| 33 | Gunnar Reger | S | FR | 6'1" | 195 | King George, VA |
| 34 | Tre Winters | S | FR | 6'3" | 190 | Adairsville, GA |
| 8 | Cooper Welch | PK | FR | 5'11" | 180 | Pasadena, MD |
| 15 | Nolan Bartley | PK | FR | 6'0" | 172 | Austin, TX |
| 95 | Justin Welch | PK | SO | 6'2" | 190 | Irmo, SC |
| 96 | Archie Esh | PK | FR | 5'10" | 180 | Lenexa, KS |
| 99 | Lance Gossett | PK | SR | 6'1" | 200 | Louisville, KY |
| 11 | Jacob Carlson | P | JR | 5'10" | 190 | Plano, TX |
| 90 | Jack Armbruster | P | SO | 6'2" | 180 | New Orleans, LA |
| 97 | Roman Hyland | P | SO | 5'11" | 195 | Belmont, NC |
| 39 | Jonah Krueger | LS | FR | 5'10" | 205 | College Station, TX |
| 91 | Eli Cronic | LS | SO | 5'11" | 183 | Arnold, MD |
| 92 | Rayne Fry | LS | SR | 6'2" | 196 | Lawrenceville, GA |
| 93 | Thomas McDonald | LS | FR | 6'1" | 240 | Agoura Hills, CA |
| 94 | Jaxon Endres | LS | SO | 6'2" | 215 | Brentwood, TN |
| 98 | Landon Purcell | LS | SO | 5'11" | 192 | Powell, OH |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Navy runs it: Brian Newberry's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 3 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 2nd at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 132nd at generating havoc, and they are 131st at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −29.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Navy has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#2projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#11projected
- Offenserunning it#21projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#132projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#131projected
- Defensethrowing it#131projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 4.28#9
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.65 / 1.79
- Power / stuff (off)
- 100.0% / 6.3%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 11.9%#113
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 11.9% / 0.0%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.24#31 | 0.64#15 | 0.75#47 |
| Defense | -0.30#22 | 0.40#115 | 0.55#96 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 31 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.4882nd
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.0552nd
- Offense success rate63%94th
- Defense success rate allowed29%79th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs69%96th
- Offense success — passing downs41%73rd
- Defense success allowed — standard downs32%80th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs24%58th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.015th
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.91st
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.7811th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.585th
Trenches
- Offense line yards4.393rd
- Defense line yards allowed3.318th
- Offense highlight yards1.669th
- Defense highlight yards allowed0.0682nd
- Offense power success1.099th
- Defense power success allowed0.0099th
- Offense stuff rate0.0592nd
- Defense stuff rate0.1837th
Third down
- Third down conversion58%82nd
- Third down distance faced5.386th
- Third down conversion allowed25%77th
- Third down distance forced8.372nd
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.3482nd
- Net success rate — second half0.3692nd
Roster
- Returning usage14%13th
- Returning EPA46.726th
- Team talent composite1961st
- Recruiting class rank1441st
- Recruiting class points99.41st
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Rush efficiency edge: 0.972 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Navy is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Navy in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 11-2 | 8-1 | 85% | 9.4 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 10-3 | 7-2 | 77% | 10.6 | -0.6 |
| 2023 | 5-7 | 4-4 | 42% | 5.8 | -0.8 |
| 2022 | 4-8 | 4-4 | 33% | 8.6 | -4.6 |
| 2021 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 33% | 7.0 | -3.0 |
| 2020 | 3-7 | 3-4 | 30% | 4.7 | -1.7 |
| 2019 | 11-2 | 7-1 | 85% | 11.1 | -0.1 |
| 2018 | 3-10 | 2-6 | 23% | 4.1 | -1.1 |
| 2017 | 7-6 | 4-4 | 54% | 6.1 | +0.9 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-0 so far, projected to finish 8.0-4.4. Wins the American Athletic in 21%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 1.
Win out and it is 99%. Running the table settles it.
up 1.1 points since preseason.
- At 1 loss they are 69% where the average American Athletic team is 52%.
- The American Athletic takes 0.34 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 5.7% of seasons, having won their league in 95% of those.
Navy’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk9vs Notre Dame25.1
- wk7at UTSA9.9
- wk12vs Memphis9.7
- wk5at Air Force9.3
- wk15at Army8.5
- wk6vs Tulsa8.5
Who to root for
Games Navy is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk10Toledo over Sacramento State0.9
- wk3Oklahoma over New Mexico0.9
- wk5Utah State over Boise State0.9
- wk9Texas State over Boise State0.9
- wk12SMU over Notre Dame0.8
- wk4Old Dominion over James Madison0.8
American Athletic
0-0 in league play, projected 6.1-2.92 of 14 by title oddsThe American Athletic sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 33% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk12Memphis at Navy25.7
- wk7Navy at UTSA24.6
- wk15Navy at Army23.5
- wk6Tulsa at Navy23.4
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole American Athletic race →
If not the playoff, then
Navy is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 6.6% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- Gasparilla Bowl18%
- Military Bowl11%
- Fenway Bowl11%
- Armed Forces Bowl8.5%
- Birmingham Bowl7.3%
- First Responder Bowl5.9%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 12 have sent Navy a player since 2010 — 31 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Navy's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.