Navy vs. Air Force Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Navy gets at Air Force: 2nd at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 137th at stuffing runs at the line. Where Air Force gets at Navy: 16th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 132nd at generating havoc. Navy is also 11th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 137th.
How
NAVYattacks
AF
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
NAVY#2 of 138AF#137 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
NAVY#11 of 138AF#137 of 138 - 3
Run it
running it · projected
NAVY#21 of 138AF#138 of 138
HowAFattacksNAVY
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
AF#16 of 138NAVY#132 of 138 - 2
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
AF#3 of 138NAVY#113 of 138 - 3
Throw it
throwing it · projected
AF#37 of 138NAVY#131 of 138
The two teams
Navy
Navy runs it: Brian Newberry's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 3 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 2nd at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 132nd at generating havoc, and they are 131st at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −29.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Navy has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#2projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#11projected
- Offenserunning it#21projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#132projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#131projected
- Defensethrowing it#131projected
Air Force
Air Force runs it: Troy Calhoun's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 3rd at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 138th at defending the pass, and they are 138th at defending the run.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Air Force has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#3projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#16projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensethrowing it#138projected
- Defenserunning it#138projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#138projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AF Elo 1416, NAVY Elo 1527 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AF -9.6 (72% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
NAVY43rd51stAFAF82nd108thNAVYThrough the air
NAVY135th23rdAFAF134th133rdNAVYOn the ground
NAVY2nd54thAFAF5th6thNAVYStaying on the field
NAVY62nd43rdAFAF30th112thNAVYTaking care of it
NAVY48th46thAFAF21st127thNAVY
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAir Force leads 34–24 · Navy has won 2 straight · 47% have been one-possession games
| NAVY | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.1 (#101) | CORE overall | -14.9 (#127) |
| -2 / +6 | offense / defense | -1 / +14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Navy vs. Air Force?
Gridpex's model favors Air Force with a 72% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Navy vs. Air Force?
The model projects Air Force by 9.6.
What time is Navy vs. Air Force and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 PM ET, at Falcon Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →