Temple vs. Navy Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Temple gets at Navy: 68th at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 123rd at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. Where Navy gets at Temple: 2nd at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 131st at stuffing runs at the line. Temple is also 65th at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 111th.
How
TEMattacks
NAVY
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
TEM#68 of 138NAVY#123 of 138 - 2
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
TEM#65 of 138NAVY#111 of 138 - 3
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
TEM#85 of 138NAVY#129 of 138
HowNAVYattacksTEM
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
NAVY#2 of 138TEM#131 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected
NAVY#16 of 138TEM#125 of 138 - 3
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
NAVY#13 of 138TEM#102 of 138
The two teams
Temple
Temple is in year 2 under K.C. Keeler. The way in is 132nd at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 130th at shutting down the ground game.
Temple has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#132projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#130projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#128projected
Navy
Navy runs it: Brian Newberry's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 3 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 2nd at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 130th at defending the pass, and they are 129th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −29.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Navy has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#2projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#13projected
- Offenserunning it#16projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensethrowing it#130projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#129projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#129projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NAVY Elo 1513, TEM Elo 1323 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NAVY -0.9 (53% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
TEM92nd109thNAVYNAVY44th108thTEMThrough the air
TEM130th133rdNAVYNAVY136th99thTEMOn the ground
TEM41st6thNAVYNAVY2nd76thTEMStaying on the field
TEM127th113thNAVYNAVY62nd116thTEMTaking care of it
TEM47th129thNAVYNAVY47th46thTEM
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNavy leads 11–9 · Navy has won 2 straight · 50% have been one-possession games
| TEM | NAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 (#82) | CORE overall | -11.8 (#111) |
| -3 / +0 | offense / defense | -3 / +9 |
| 1.25 | points / drive | 2.54 |
| 3.38 | allowed / drive | 3.67 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| -6 | pass over expected | -13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Temple vs. Navy?
Gridpex's model favors Navy with a 53% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Temple vs. Navy?
The model projects Navy by 0.9.
What time is Temple vs. Navy and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 7, 3:30 PM ET, at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →