Memphis vs. Navy Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 3 games in, blended with the projection
Where Memphis gets at Navy: 5th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 125th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Navy gets at Memphis: 5th at running it, against a unit 122nd at defending the run. Memphis is also 40th at throwing it, against a unit 137th.
How
MEMattacks
NAVY
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 57% this season, 3 games
MEM1.50#5 of 138NAVY1.47#125 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · 27% this season, 3 games
MEM+0.64#40 of 138NAVY+0.61#137 of 138 - 3
Run it
running it · 27% this season, 3 games
MEM+0.22#20 of 138NAVY-0.08#80 of 138
HowNAVYattacksMEM
- 1
Run it
running it · projected · 2 games in
NAVY+0.55#5 of 138MEM+0.34#122 of 138 - 2
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected · 2 games in
NAVY63%#21 of 138MEM54%#117 of 138 - 3
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · 20% this season, 2 games
NAVY10.2%#2 of 138MEM13.1%#95 of 138
The two teams
Memphis
Memphis is in year 1 under Charles Huff, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 5th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 122nd at defending the run, and they are 119th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −37.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Memphis has played 3 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 31% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.50#5 of 138
- Offenserunning it+0.22#20 of 138
- Offensethe push the line gets3.29#32 of 138
Soft spots
- Defenserunning it+0.34#122 of 138
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.39#119 of 138
- Defensefirst and second down54%#117 of 138
Navy
Navy runs it: Brian Newberry's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 3 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 2nd at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 137th at defending the pass, and they are 130th at generating havoc.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −29.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Navy has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line10.2%#2 of 138
- Offenserunning it+0.55#5 of 138
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss12.5%#14 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Defensethrowing it+0.61#137 of 138
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss14.8%#130 of 138
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air30%#128 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NAVY Elo 1527, MEM Elo 1529 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NAVY +4.5 (39% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
MEM7th108thNAVYNAVY43rd129thMEMThrough the air
MEM46th133rdNAVYNAVY135th125thMEMOn the ground
MEM32nd6thNAVYNAVY2nd130thMEMStaying on the field
MEM110th112thNAVYNAVY62nd72ndMEMTaking care of it
MEM104th127thNAVYNAVY48th22ndMEM
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMemphis leads 6–5 · Navy has won 2 straight · 36% have been one-possession games
| MEM | NAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.4 (#36) | CORE overall | -8.1 (#101) |
| +9 / -1 | offense / defense | -2 / +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Memphis vs. Navy?
Gridpex's model favors Memphis with a 61% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Memphis vs. Navy?
The model projects Memphis by 4.5.
What time is Memphis vs. Navy and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 21, 12:00 PM ET, at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →