Navy vs. Army Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Market vs our model
we are 15.7 toward 
ARMY
| Market | Our model | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread |  NAVY −2.5 | ARMY −13.2 |
| ARMY win | 44% | 79% |
Calibrated against results, not against the closing line. Read this as our confidence, not as an edge over the market.
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Navy gets at Army: 2nd at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 128th at stuffing runs at the line. Where Army gets at Navy: 9th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 132nd at generating havoc. Navy is also 11th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 127th.
HowNAVYattacksARMY
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
NAVY#2 of 138ARMY#128 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
NAVY#11 of 138ARMY#127 of 138 - 3
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
NAVY#31 of 138ARMY#123 of 138
HowARMYattacksNAVY
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
ARMY#9 of 138NAVY#132 of 138 - 2
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
ARMY#10 of 138NAVY#113 of 138 - 3
Throw it
throwing it · projected
ARMY#42 of 138NAVY#131 of 138
The two teams
Navy
Navy runs it: Brian Newberry's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 3 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 2nd at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 132nd at generating havoc, and they are 131st at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −29.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Navy has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#2projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#11projected
- Offenserunning it#21projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#132projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#131projected
- Defensethrowing it#131projected
Army
Army runs it: Jeff Monken's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 9th at keeping a clean pocket. The way in is 131st at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 130th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+12.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −10.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Army has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#9projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#10projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#131projected
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#130projected
- Defensefirst and second down#130projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARMY Elo 1524, NAVY Elo 1527 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects ARMY -13.2 (79% to win) — 15.7 points clear of ARMY's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
NAVY43rd61stARMYARMY19th108thNAVYThrough the air
NAVY135th46thARMYARMY131st133rdNAVYOn the ground
NAVY2nd53rdARMYARMY1st6thNAVYStaying on the field
NAVY63rd73rdARMYARMY34th111thNAVYTaking care of it
NAVY49th126thARMYARMY21st126thNAVY
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNavy leads 63–55–7 · Navy has won 2 straight · 51% have been one-possession games
| NAVY | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.1 (#101) | CORE overall | -6.7 (#96) |
| -2 / +6 | offense / defense | -2 / +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Navy vs. Army?
Gridpex's model favors Army with a 79% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Navy vs. Army?
The model projects Army by 13.2.
What time is Navy vs. Army and what channel is it on?
Sat, Dec 12, 3:00 PM ET, at MetLife Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →