Navy-Marine Corps Memorial StadiumCBSSNConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
NAVY 1575
TLSA 1110
Projected spread
NAVY -19.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
NAVY
93% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
93%
NAVY (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (NAVY Elo 1575, TLSA Elo 1110) plus home-field advantage. That projects NAVY -19.7 (93% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelTLSA 7% · NAVY 93%
Pick: NAVY
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
TLSA2025 season · national rank shownNAVY
398.557th
Total yards / game
416.133rd5.397th
Yards / play
6.6Key matchups · Pro
- NAVY rush offense (0.28 PPA) vs. TLSA rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge NAVY.
- TLSA pass offense (0.15 PPA) vs. NAVY pass defense (0.37 allowed) — edge NAVY.
- NAVY pass offense (0.46 PPA) vs. TLSA pass defense (0.28 allowed) — edge NAVY.
FAQ
Who will win Tulsa vs. Navy?
Gridpex's model favors Navy with a 93% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Tulsa vs. Navy?
The model projects Navy by 19.7.
What time is Tulsa vs. Navy and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 10, 7:30 PM on CBSSN, at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Navy at 93% to win, projecting Navy by 19.7.