Notre Dame vs. Navy Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Notre Dame gets at Navy: 7th at throwing it, against a unit 131st at defending the pass. Where Navy gets at Notre Dame: 2nd at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 35th at stuffing runs at the line. Notre Dame is also 8th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 132nd.
How
NDattacks
NAVY
- 1
Throw it
throwing it · projected
ND#7 of 138NAVY#131 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
ND#8 of 138NAVY#132 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
ND#5 of 138NAVY#120 of 138
HowNAVYattacksND
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
NAVY#2 of 138ND#35 of 138
The two teams
Notre Dame
Notre Dame is in year 6 under Marcus Freeman, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 3rd at holding teams to field goals.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.2% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Notre Dame has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#3projected
- Offenserunning it#4projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#4projected
Navy
Navy runs it: Brian Newberry's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 3 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 2nd at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 132nd at generating havoc, and they are 131st at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −29.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Navy has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#2projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#11projected
- Offenserunning it#21projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#132projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#131projected
- Defensethrowing it#131projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NAVY Elo 1527, ND Elo 2110 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects NAVY +28.3 (3% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
ND48th111thNAVYNAVY45th32ndNDThrough the air
ND32nd73rdNAVYNAVY137th36thNDOn the ground
ND107th7thNAVYNAVY1st20thNDStaying on the field
ND49th27thNAVYNAVY16th42ndNDTaking care of it
ND1st118thNAVYNAVY1st3rdND
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNotre Dame leads 84–13–1 · Notre Dame has won 8 straight · 30% have been one-possession games
| ND | NAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| +26.4 (#6) | CORE overall | -8.1 (#101) |
| +14 / -13 | offense / defense | -2 / +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Notre Dame vs. Navy?
Gridpex's model favors Notre Dame with a 97% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Notre Dame vs. Navy?
The model projects Notre Dame by 28.3.
What time is Notre Dame vs. Navy and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET, at Gillette Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →