#3Nick Nash

WR·San José State·2021 20200.0 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Nick Nash is a 2-year Versatile WR for San José State. Nick's 2020 season ranks in the 17th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 74 plays — a developing rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Nick Nash's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Passing

20/34 Comp/Att213 Pass yards2 Pass TD2 INT58.8% Comp %

Rushing

204 Rush yards1 Rush TD40 Carries5.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs WR peers

Efficiency17
Volume41
Explosiveness25
Consistency12
Pass-Down65

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)17th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency12th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs WR peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 1.29 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.79 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs UNLV (SP+ -20).

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Amare Jones	Tulane	2020	71	0.180	0.0	12.8
Justin Lynch	Temple	2021	63	0.240	0.3	15.1
Davis Bryson	Kennesaw State	2024	97	0.200	0.0	19.4
Samajie Grant	Arizona	2016	62	0.250	0.3	15.5
Justin Lynch	Northern Illinois	2022	66	0.230	0.7	15.2

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · EPA per play, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	EPA/play	Pass	Rush
8	vsAir Force	W17-6	-5.6	0.08	—	0.08
9	@New Mexico	W38-21	-15.0	0.27	0.34	0.20
10	@San Diego State	W28-17	5.3	0.31	0.20	0.55
11	vsUNLV	W34-17	-19.7	0.79	0.70	0.80
14	vsHawai'i	W35-24	-7.1	-0.27	-0.09	-0.36
15	vsNevada	W30-20	1.9	-2.12	—	-2.12
16	vsBoise State	W34-20	6.7	-0.65	—	-0.65
1	vsBall State	L13-34	-6.7	-0.68	-1.12	-0.23

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

14.3%

Passing plays

12.0%

Rushing plays

17.3%

Standard downs

14.9%

Passing downs

12.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.07
Passing downs: 0.16
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.05 / 0.13

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 — 2021 · 17 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2020	San José State	0.0	0.210	—	8.8
2021	San José State	0.5	0.310	+0.10	14.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.